claydoctor
Short

spx500 looming possible HS

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
80 12 1
Similarities between Oct             2014 and now. Bollinger bands , MACD , and RSI all look similar to before that dip. The anticipation of raising rates with the yellen hawkish comments, most hawkish ever, will be enough to swoon this down to neckline, then either they raise and it isn't so bad, or they don't raise and kick tat can again, with the pressure of the santa clause rally maybe coming a bit late and furious this year. Warm, wet US winter could dampen jacket sales ( XLY             ). Lots here, all in one chart, but had to include a little possible elliott wave action also (orange).
glad you are back
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claydoctor ida.pagnottella
a year ago
Thanks. Have not traded for a month. Got hurt on last move, like an idiot. And I know I am not alone, tough market now, and this last rise fooled me, as it did other bears. So had to back away, get perspective. Now the indicators are clearly supporting this move. Trouble is, I know most everyone is either "cautious" or a bear. So not all in, but playing this next downturn, and already placed my wagers.
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ida.pagnottella claydoctor
a year ago
Actually everyone I know is bullish because they say "everyone knows" that there is always a Santa Claus rally starting from now ..
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claydoctor ida.pagnottella
a year ago
Well, yes I heard that too, so how can so many be bullish and so many be bears? Equals a net trader position dogi of huge proportions, so which way to we go? When I am confused, I watch the options volume of volatility traders, and there are more puts than calls right now, and some big volume purchases last couple of days. I follow the big money, not the public. A santa clause rally is just an idea. And XLY is suspect right now. I heard a couple talking heads say they expect that rally to dissapoint. Data is data, is fact. Like I said, I am NOT all in this opinion, I am just taking one side of that argument. And I am encouraged that "everyone" expects something (strong santa clause rally), which means it probably will dissapoint. When I heard there were so many bears, I was scared to into that cave. But I did. we will see. Maybe I will be kicking myself once again. we will see. best of fortunes.
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claydoctor claydoctor
a year ago
Besides, a santa clause rally when there is such a huge resistance at these levels. It would take a huge burst to pop through past previous all time highs. I think the december fomc decision... the world waits for. You think it is stressful in September, this time could be more so. stress equals volatility.
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claydoctor
a year ago
Also, this could very well turn out to be the big double top this market was waiting for. The rotation out to bonds, if this slide down gains momentum could be more flash than in August. And the last half of the flash, the numbers were not real. This time could be a bit different. Itchy trigger fingers.
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claydoctor
a year ago
Going down, clearing the 200 day MA will be the sign if it is merely a bump in the road, or the real deal.
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pedroscott
a year ago
If the right shoulder is an a-b-c-d move there may still be another high tho' around 2137, right?. I am a confirmed bear here -licking my wounds- maybe a conservative Bearish call spread otm until things shake out
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claydoctor pedroscott
a year ago
2137 for the double top, yes, it is possible. So trying to call the top here is foolish. I believe in the 5th wave, so I am in now, and whether I entered at the top or not, its ok. And do NOT believe in 2137 so much that I would ride something for that short trip.
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claydoctor claydoctor
a year ago
In VXX to short the S&P
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claydoctor claydoctor
a year ago
and yes, us bears only come out of our caves or dens when we smell a meal to be had.
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pedroscott claydoctor
a year ago
Okay enjoy that 5 wave ride down-at some point the QE rate rise stuff is going to be seen as simply not addressing the systemic problems we have in the global economy and we shld have a reset......well below here. But when is another question. Fibonacci time sequences are good predictive tool also but I am not too proficient at setting them up on the charts.
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