Kumowizard

Bulls still in control,no valid short signal ytday, what's next?

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
205 1 1
It was sooo close.... but as I called your attention ytday, we still have to be cautious, as only a real break below the support could have given a valid sell signal. The px             action within a day was good for observing a few things: 1. now we see the bulls are very desperate to buy at any px             . Of course, as they know as well, that in case 1840 and maybe later the 1800 is gone, it would be a huge problem with total selloff hitting in. We also know, that the inflow into leveraged long equity funds are still there, what's more it is at absolute all time record high levels! Believe me, if once this trend breaks, it will be a really ugly crash. We need to see how long these Bulls can push it further. 2. The very important support level on 4 Hrs chart is a lot more clean now: it is 1840. That's it, only one horizontal line now on my chart. It is exactly on the bottom of the Cloud, and also in line with a multiple Chikou span (lagging blue line) peaks and bottoms. Watch it together with the blue and red trendlines. Sell the mkt only when a 4 Hrs candle CLOSES below 1840!!! If you are impatient, as you feel like me, that it is kind of stupid at these highs, and the bear is closer and closer, then rather buy Put options (April maturity at 1825 strike), instead of going short too early. You'll have the feeling of expressing bearishness, but at least you'll sleep better. Volatility is picking up.
Relja
2 years ago
Nice! I agree with you 100%. Lets see what numbers we will get this week - NFP soon.
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