Sorry guys,
for anyone, who is fascinated with idea of CRASH and 2007 REPEAT, imho, TODAY IS NOT ANOTHER 2007 as divergencies on weekly chart could mimic. Also - and most important - SPX did in 2007 DOUBLE TOP - NOT ATH BREAK.
Just look at emas, SAR and momentum on monthly chart. Last megabullish monthly hammer reversal on BIG VOLUME is sending different message. WHERE COULD ANYONE SEE ANY SELL SIGNAL?
I put long pitchfork from 1982 low 102.2 on monthly and you can see the status - spx is in similar position as in 10/1996, AFTER ATH BREAK AND AFTER FIRST MONTHLY PULLBACK TO EMA13 and 68 bars distant from low.
Market (US) wants to climb, maybe irrational, bubbleforming or whatever, but IT DOES NOT MATTER. It probably could be classified as the upward correction (wave X in Neely-Elliot style) when 2000-2009 was W (ABC). Europe (euxx, ftse, smi) is in correction from 05/2013, dax did just a little better but is in correction as well. Europe needs to start QE to follow US.
SPX is heading, at first, towards blue/upper AP line - target 2250+. Then, IIIIIIFFFF!!!! the economic cycle will kick in and IIIIFFFF!!!! FED will not mess it with too early or steep hikes, then the BREAKUP is possible with next target at 1.618 parallel line - target 2750+.
Anyway, there is still chance for correction to 1740 (as w4 in current 5-wave leg), next strong support is sitting on breakup Hi-Hi channel (now 1630), but, most probably (and same as in 1997), there will stay classic no retrace runaway zone (like in any standard trend) - so there will be very limited chance to enter the train. Maybe best and only occasion for small correction could be the first hike - shortly after or maybe even before as negative expectation - check UST3M line as guideline.
Clean, confirmed break of 1700/1600 (ema34 and AP middle line) will invalidate this scenario.
to tradingview: sry, the ust3m line in published idea is not visible, i can see it only in my chart
for anyone, who is fascinated with idea of CRASH and 2007 REPEAT, imho, TODAY IS NOT ANOTHER 2007 as divergencies on weekly chart could mimic. Also - and most important - SPX did in 2007 DOUBLE TOP - NOT ATH BREAK.
Just look at emas, SAR and momentum on monthly chart. Last megabullish monthly hammer reversal on BIG VOLUME is sending different message. WHERE COULD ANYONE SEE ANY SELL SIGNAL?
I put long pitchfork from 1982 low 102.2 on monthly and you can see the status - spx is in similar position as in 10/1996, AFTER ATH BREAK AND AFTER FIRST MONTHLY PULLBACK TO EMA13 and 68 bars distant from low.
Market (US) wants to climb, maybe irrational, bubbleforming or whatever, but IT DOES NOT MATTER. It probably could be classified as the upward correction (wave X in Neely-Elliot style) when 2000-2009 was W (ABC). Europe (euxx, ftse, smi) is in correction from 05/2013, dax did just a little better but is in correction as well. Europe needs to start QE to follow US.
SPX is heading, at first, towards blue/upper AP line - target 2250+. Then, IIIIIIFFFF!!!! the economic cycle will kick in and IIIIFFFF!!!! FED will not mess it with too early or steep hikes, then the BREAKUP is possible with next target at 1.618 parallel line - target 2750+.
Anyway, there is still chance for correction to 1740 (as w4 in current 5-wave leg), next strong support is sitting on breakup Hi-Hi channel (now 1630), but, most probably (and same as in 1997), there will stay classic no retrace runaway zone (like in any standard trend) - so there will be very limited chance to enter the train. Maybe best and only occasion for small correction could be the first hike - shortly after or maybe even before as negative expectation - check UST3M line as guideline.
Clean, confirmed break of 1700/1600 (ema34 and AP middle line) will invalidate this scenario.
to tradingview: sry, the ust3m line in published idea is not visible, i can see it only in my chart