FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
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No 4 Hrs chart this time (that has been bearish anyway, since SPX             is in a corrective move), just daily and weekly charts, to see the big picture.

Lot of people have a vision of a big crash, or at least the end of the bull mkt. Yes it is possible. The question is when and how it will come. Certanly stocks have been trading weak, as I wrote in my prev post also SPX             came under pressure. The breath indicators have a lot of problem, HYG             got hit, Russell is down more than 10 %, US10y             yield down again, etc. But, for example Gold             , is struggling to reverse (probably due to the still strong USD). Sometimes correlations work, soemtimes they don't, so let's just have a look at the technical picture.

Daily: Yes, again it looks like the trendline is in a real danger! So is the Kumo, Price seem to be breaking below. But if you look back in time, the same happened in Aug/2014, Feb/2014 Dip buyers always saved it. If we compare these "looked like a break" days, we can see that Slow Stoch was pretty much oversold, just like now.
I think sooner or later stock mkts will turn rather bearish , but I doubt they will suddenly collapse. Even in 2007 we had big pull backs before the major selloff. This time I have two scenarios in mind:
A) Price gets down to one of the major lower supports at 1928 or 1898. Then it will be a real bearish signal on the daily time frame, but with high probability by then we will see some recovery from the oversold territory, to retest the Kumo from the lows.
B) by some reason (eg. on back of ECB QE announcement), greed will dominate and dip buyers reverse mkts from this level.

Anyhow, if you have not yet enterred shorts, selling at current level is risky, and not a good risk-reward. Selling at current level will be a good risk reward after a pullback from the lows back here, together with indicators giving bearish swing signals.

Weekly: if you look at this chart, clearly hard to envision a collapse :-). Yes, I see that from the three accelerative bullish trend the steepest is penetrated. Good chance for Price to come down to 1890 or maybe even to 1830-1850, but still that would be only a healthy correction. Bear mkt you can talk about only below 1810. It can happen, but there will be big waves and a lot of nervous trading with a lot of pains on both sides. People just forgot about bigger moves and higher volaitility.
I backtested two years back for similar situations and market moves in relation to two other indices on the same periods the SP500 and NAS and DOW were in this place. Unfortunately, i find it pretty hard to reverse after today. Why? WHile DOW and SP are on the edge of their trend and can reverse to some good upside, NAS is too high up - it will need to go down, dragging the other two with it. Its a high chance as high flyers are projected to be a good short by many analysts here, such as NFLX, TSLA, PCLN and so forth. So if they go down on a second sell-off today, well, even -0.5% will make it that indices are crossing the trend line, and that would lead to a micro panic and a further sell-off. But while NAS100 would be in its range, other two are going to be out of it - and that is changing the trend.. so from a clear bull trend we will go to an unknown ( usually called sideways trend. that is a good prequel to the upcoming correction.)

Another scenario - it goes up from today...and up. But for how long - trends for NAS and SP as squeezing, and at some point they will be broken up or down... down we can easily see - but up...i find it hard to believe to break and streamline further up at this point. I don't quite see any particular possible reasons for a shoot up. And looking at the world markets, all of them started to stagnate and loosing ground (except Japan, other markets are not at tops). Spread betting 70% down, and 20% we hold it at this level. my 2 cents :)
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Thx a lot for this colour! Yes I completely agree with you, these can drive the A) and the B) scenarios.
Bearish pressure will likely stay on US mkts for longer time, regardless the short term moves.
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2use Kumowizard
I have been invested in other markets for some time and while US were doing its ups and down - others were somewhat ok. Now global markets have all been changing trend - i.e. i cant see any great place to put the money to, so i took it out.
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Do you think cash is that bad to hold? :-) I have been in cash (or let's say floaters with 2-4 % yield in different ccys) for a while. Where I see some possibility later this year or erly next year is probably agricultural products, soft commodoties. There I am looking for a bullish reversal to happen.
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Kumowizard PRO Kumowizard
Also the thing is if you hold cash now, what is the alternative cost? Is that you miss a possible 5 % rally from here vs a 10-15 % or a larger meltdown? Is it better to hold cash, or better to hold equities as buy and hold strategy guys do? I vote for cash.
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2use Kumowizard
I figured it all depends on your goals, hunger, and views. If you want 1 million now, you want to win and you are overly positive - you might stay in and gamble. i try to take out emotions, look at the chart as if i am playing a game, so i try not to worry about losing much as well - but also i take a deep breath and say what it feels like at the moment in general. And seeing what i see, risk reward is 1win:4lose as i see. I would not stay fully invested in this market or higher up. And even when it whiplashes, it won't be a reversal until confirmed - i rather play a confirmed trend, than in an unconfirmed one.
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2use Kumowizard