No 4 Hrs chart this time (that has been bearish anyway, since SPX is in a corrective move), just daily and weekly charts, to see the big picture.
Lot of people have a vision of a big crash, or at least the end of the bull mkt. Yes it is possible. The question is when and how it will come. Certanly stocks have been trading weak, as I wrote in my prev post also SPX came under pressure. The breath indicators have a lot of problem, HYG got hit, Russell is down more than 10 %, US10y yield down again, etc. But, for example Gold, is struggling to reverse (probably due to the still strong USD). Sometimes correlations work, soemtimes they don't, so let's just have a look at the technical picture.
Daily: Yes, again it looks like the trendline is in a real danger! So is the Kumo, Price seem to be breaking below. But if you look back in time, the same happened in Aug/2014, Feb/2014 Dip buyers always saved it. If we compare these "looked like a break" days, we can see that Slow Stoch was pretty much oversold, just like now.
I think sooner or later stock mkts will turn rather bearish, but I doubt they will suddenly collapse. Even in 2007 we had big pull backs before the major selloff. This time I have two scenarios in mind:
A) Price gets down to one of the major lower supports at 1928 or 1898. Then it will be a real bearish signal on the daily time frame, but with high probability by then we will see some recovery from the oversold territory, to retest the Kumo from the lows.
B) by some reason (eg. on back of ECB QE announcement), greed will dominate and dip buyers reverse mkts from this level.
Anyhow, if you have not yet enterred shorts, selling at current level is risky, and not a good risk-reward. Selling at current level will be a good risk reward after a pullback from the lows back here, together with indicators giving bearish swing signals.
Weekly: if you look at this chart, clearly hard to envision a collapse :-). Yes, I see that from the three accelerative bullish trend the steepest is penetrated. Good chance for Price to come down to 1890 or maybe even to 1830-1850, but still that would be only a healthy correction. Bear mkt you can talk about only below 1810. It can happen, but there will be big waves and a lot of nervous trading with a lot of pains on both sides. People just forgot about bigger moves and higher volaitility.
Lot of people have a vision of a big crash, or at least the end of the bull mkt. Yes it is possible. The question is when and how it will come. Certanly stocks have been trading weak, as I wrote in my prev post also SPX came under pressure. The breath indicators have a lot of problem, HYG got hit, Russell is down more than 10 %, US10y yield down again, etc. But, for example Gold, is struggling to reverse (probably due to the still strong USD). Sometimes correlations work, soemtimes they don't, so let's just have a look at the technical picture.
Daily: Yes, again it looks like the trendline is in a real danger! So is the Kumo, Price seem to be breaking below. But if you look back in time, the same happened in Aug/2014, Feb/2014 Dip buyers always saved it. If we compare these "looked like a break" days, we can see that Slow Stoch was pretty much oversold, just like now.
I think sooner or later stock mkts will turn rather bearish, but I doubt they will suddenly collapse. Even in 2007 we had big pull backs before the major selloff. This time I have two scenarios in mind:
A) Price gets down to one of the major lower supports at 1928 or 1898. Then it will be a real bearish signal on the daily time frame, but with high probability by then we will see some recovery from the oversold territory, to retest the Kumo from the lows.
B) by some reason (eg. on back of ECB QE announcement), greed will dominate and dip buyers reverse mkts from this level.
Anyhow, if you have not yet enterred shorts, selling at current level is risky, and not a good risk-reward. Selling at current level will be a good risk reward after a pullback from the lows back here, together with indicators giving bearish swing signals.
Weekly: if you look at this chart, clearly hard to envision a collapse :-). Yes, I see that from the three accelerative bullish trend the steepest is penetrated. Good chance for Price to come down to 1890 or maybe even to 1830-1850, but still that would be only a healthy correction. Bear mkt you can talk about only below 1810. It can happen, but there will be big waves and a lot of nervous trading with a lot of pains on both sides. People just forgot about bigger moves and higher volaitility.
