S&P 500 Top and Short Target

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
So we see a longer trend of lower lows, and lower highs on most major indices worldwide, and this is clearly also starting to catch up with USA too. The latest bull move is looking extended and we are seeing signs of exhaustion and a rather messy-looking head and shoulders top is emerging. The key feature here is we have a rising support, the neckline, that gives us an opportunity to short and manage our risk in the trade.

I don't expect this to be a simply break, the right shoulder may drag on, there may be fake breaks of the neckline, but ultimately if you smooth out the noise with a longer timeframe, and ideally wait for the neckline to act as resistance, you should have the opportunity for a great entry for a trade that can net you at least 40 points on S&P , 500 points on Dow and so on. The 2000 level is an obvious downside target not just because it's a round number but it is the technical target of a head and shoulder, and it's also the most obvious level of horizontal support and resistance on this entire chart. Even if the downmove is going to be sustained, I'd be really surprised if we don't bounce significantly at 2000, and I'd be more interested in long scalps at that level than holding onto any shorts.

Assuming I'm wrong and the neckline holds for now, even if we do break above the curve down, I'm still not interested in long positions in this market until we get a significant pullback after this very stretched looking bull move.


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