Actually it is very difficult to decide which way to trade from current level. Charts and indicators are mixed a bit.
Daily: It is still long term bullish, but somehow bullish momentum just can not pick up again here at all time highs. For this reason DMI is irrelevant a bit, as ADX is too low. Ichimoku components still bullish, but for those who are looking to short this mkt at some point we have to note that Kijun Sen is catching up. It will be an important signal when Price crosses below Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen once. However so far all the Ichimoku lines are pointing up.
We have a negative divergence in MACD and in Slow Stoch, while both indicators seem to be still kind of bearish. Fridays candle was a hammer, and the daily turnover was quite high (not marked on the chart).
The developing pattern I believe is a bearish megaphone, with increasing volatility and with 2000 as a mid line has bigger and bigger importance for short term traders.
For the long run 1950-1955 is still the most important level to watch
4 Hrs: Still rather bullish, so far we have seen Price only retesting Kijun Sen and 100 WMA above the Kumo. However Chikou Span quickly lost open space, and also DMI closed back to neutral very quickly after Friday's profit taking. Clearly 2000 is very important for Bulls to hold. Below that 1990 is the next key level, in line with daily Kijun Sen. We can see bearish counter trend (correction) only with a break of these levels.
1 Hr: Price is below the Kumo, but not yet below the horizontal Key Support at 2000. DMi is bearish, but Slow Stoch seems will send Price back up to the Kumo ard 2007-2012. In case 2012-2014 stops the move and Price turns down again, then we can start to think about some small shorts.
Summary: As you see, it is extremely difficult to decide now if it worths to short this mkt or not. Also very difficult for Bulls to decide to hold longs further or if it's better to reduce bullish exposure. The most likely is that we'll see more choppy trading in next coming days ard the 2000 points level. For the longer term I am still worried about equity mkts, and I still think finally we'll see a lot bigger correction to hit in. Maybe the best idea is to rather build long VIX exposure (so buying volatility) than running into equity index shorts too early.
Daily: It is still long term bullish, but somehow bullish momentum just can not pick up again here at all time highs. For this reason DMI is irrelevant a bit, as ADX is too low. Ichimoku components still bullish, but for those who are looking to short this mkt at some point we have to note that Kijun Sen is catching up. It will be an important signal when Price crosses below Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen once. However so far all the Ichimoku lines are pointing up.
We have a negative divergence in MACD and in Slow Stoch, while both indicators seem to be still kind of bearish. Fridays candle was a hammer, and the daily turnover was quite high (not marked on the chart).
The developing pattern I believe is a bearish megaphone, with increasing volatility and with 2000 as a mid line has bigger and bigger importance for short term traders.
For the long run 1950-1955 is still the most important level to watch
4 Hrs: Still rather bullish, so far we have seen Price only retesting Kijun Sen and 100 WMA above the Kumo. However Chikou Span quickly lost open space, and also DMI closed back to neutral very quickly after Friday's profit taking. Clearly 2000 is very important for Bulls to hold. Below that 1990 is the next key level, in line with daily Kijun Sen. We can see bearish counter trend (correction) only with a break of these levels.
1 Hr: Price is below the Kumo, but not yet below the horizontal Key Support at 2000. DMi is bearish, but Slow Stoch seems will send Price back up to the Kumo ard 2007-2012. In case 2012-2014 stops the move and Price turns down again, then we can start to think about some small shorts.
Summary: As you see, it is extremely difficult to decide now if it worths to short this mkt or not. Also very difficult for Bulls to decide to hold longs further or if it's better to reduce bullish exposure. The most likely is that we'll see more choppy trading in next coming days ard the 2000 points level. For the longer term I am still worried about equity mkts, and I still think finally we'll see a lot bigger correction to hit in. Maybe the best idea is to rather build long VIX exposure (so buying volatility) than running into equity index shorts too early.
