All in all I think it was not a mistake to take teh short treade: timing was good, the setup was clean. Also the stop I think was at a good level. The problem was one thing: I did not realise in time, that on the daily time fram the Slow turned back to positive, while the so many times mentionned 1845-1840 key level held well on the 4 Hrs. Also on the daily time frame the px action took place only down to the Kijun line, and immediately popped up from there. Putting it all together, there was a very lmited chance for a follow through in price action . Also the No. 1. rule on Kumo breakout trades and on the basic strategy (which initially looked excellent), that in case the px fails to break the previous Key support/resistence, then we can not say a new trend has chance to firm and develop. What is now pretty obvious, that the previus break was good for only one thing, to establish a wider short term channel!
So to summarize: when we opened this trade, the probability of winning was good, but maybe the risk reward was not the best (was not even 1:2 expected)! This was one weakness of the trade. The other "mistake" maybe was that I told you in my yesterday comment to hold on the short with same stop level. I should have realised yesterday what I am writing about now, and say move the stop a bit lower at least.
The good news is, that with this obvious short term the strategy is very clear now: Enter into trades only on the top, or on the lower break. Since I hate to go long equities here, until px reaches any of my short criterias, I leave it alone.