SP500 - Will it stuck in a range? It's hard to call now
For the last few weeks SP500 has been the "looks like" chart in both direction. In fact it is very hard to call a direction now, as you will see below it is completely neutral on all time frames. Does it mean it will stuck in a range? I don't like any directional position in SP500 now.
Weekly:
- For the last 8-9 weeks SP500 is clearly not moving anywhere. Stuck in a range with still long term bullish supports at 2000 and 1930.
- Heiken Ashi candles changing colour from week to week. Last week's candle is a doji, so is the recent candle (however this week is not yet over)
- Ichimoku setup slowly turning from bullish to rather neutral: Kumo and Kijun Sen lines are flattenning, not really pointing, so the bullish bias is lower now. Chikou Span is still above candles, but in case of further pullback it can lose its open space quickly.
- DMI, Slow Stoch and MACD show mixed picture too.
Daily:
- After breaking briefly back above Kumo, the Price action just doesnt justify further bullish bias
- last two days Heiken Ashi candles show undecision and neutral picture
- while the HA Oscillator is still bullish, the haDelta/SMA3 are close to danger zone at zero line, as if they can not turn ard quickly, the mkt will become again short term bearish.
- Ichimoku setup is completely neutral! While Price is a touch above Kumo and Kijun Sen, Tenkan Sen is still below Kijun Sen. Both Tenkan and Kijun are flat, future Kumo is absolutely flat line and thin, Chikou Span swinging ard Price candles.
It is a tough call now as really anything is possible:
A) we see SP500 to stuck in a range with break out attempts from time to time on both sides. It will rather track EU equity indexes, which are rather bullish, but also there a pull back is more likely now.
B) Assuming a final breakdown on the lower side (so no further range trading) we will have a valid H&S pattern. That would have serious consequences in form of revisiting 1850-1870 (weekly support)
C) FED comes less hawkish, signalling later rate hikes compared to mkt expectations, and let's say on back of this US equities start catching up to EU Indexes, and we see an upside break sending SP500 above 2100. However I think this is the least likely scenario, probably this would only be enough to push it to range top.
4 Hrs:
Not much to add here. Neutral, with increasing bearish bias in short term. Lower highs, weak Tenkan/Kijun bearish cross, HA candles mixed short term, but haDelta again looks rather bearish. Price still above Kumo and 100 WMA, but DMI turned bearish. Difficult to decide.
Weekly:
- For the last 8-9 weeks SP500 is clearly not moving anywhere. Stuck in a range with still long term bullish supports at 2000 and 1930.
- Heiken Ashi candles changing colour from week to week. Last week's candle is a doji, so is the recent candle (however this week is not yet over)
- Ichimoku setup slowly turning from bullish to rather neutral: Kumo and Kijun Sen lines are flattenning, not really pointing, so the bullish bias is lower now. Chikou Span is still above candles, but in case of further pullback it can lose its open space quickly.
- DMI, Slow Stoch and MACD show mixed picture too.
Daily:
- After breaking briefly back above Kumo, the Price action just doesnt justify further bullish bias
- last two days Heiken Ashi candles show undecision and neutral picture
- while the HA Oscillator is still bullish, the haDelta/SMA3 are close to danger zone at zero line, as if they can not turn ard quickly, the mkt will become again short term bearish.
- Ichimoku setup is completely neutral! While Price is a touch above Kumo and Kijun Sen, Tenkan Sen is still below Kijun Sen. Both Tenkan and Kijun are flat, future Kumo is absolutely flat line and thin, Chikou Span swinging ard Price candles.
It is a tough call now as really anything is possible:
A) we see SP500 to stuck in a range with break out attempts from time to time on both sides. It will rather track EU equity indexes, which are rather bullish, but also there a pull back is more likely now.
B) Assuming a final breakdown on the lower side (so no further range trading) we will have a valid H&S pattern. That would have serious consequences in form of revisiting 1850-1870 (weekly support)
C) FED comes less hawkish, signalling later rate hikes compared to mkt expectations, and let's say on back of this US equities start catching up to EU Indexes, and we see an upside break sending SP500 above 2100. However I think this is the least likely scenario, probably this would only be enough to push it to range top.
4 Hrs:
Not much to add here. Neutral, with increasing bearish bias in short term. Lower highs, weak Tenkan/Kijun bearish cross, HA candles mixed short term, but haDelta again looks rather bearish. Price still above Kumo and 100 WMA, but DMI turned bearish. Difficult to decide.
