Now this looks much more bullisch than a week ago. I am posting an opinion that is contrary to my own from last week.
I was more bearish then. But expiration week has come and gone and the SPX500 is simply bullish. it might be _somewhat_ bullish, it could also get _very_ bullish. Because what you see is a sidewise-to-down history that followed the tremendous bull market. This "consolidation pattern" lasted a full 15 months and seems to be left on the upside (breaking thru those blu lines.
As a premium seller, I sold premium on the upside last week, but reversed course on Friday already. The market is the master. I cannot go delta-short this market at this time. I sold premium on the downside as well, and am now removing the rest of the premium trades on the upside. They were call spreads (short 1 call out-of-the-money and long 1 call further otm) and this is done at a loss; typically some $5 to $7, multiplied x multiplyer 50 for the e-minis.
Experience has it, that typically there is no immediate crash out of a bullish pattern. If this is a bull trap here (who knows - I do not believe it but that does not matter), than an outright crash is still not likely, but consolidating sidewise is, again.
Therefore, Premium selling on the downside is my way to go. Sell wide put spreads; your short put 2000 or below; expiration May-31 or June or even September. Strike distance 100+ points. Sell fewer of them than you would on the upside. This is because of the skewed implied volatility distribution across strikes with that index put. Collect at least $10. You might choose much lower strikes, wide strike distance and go to September.
Good thing is, the downside premium trades are well "rollable" - roll to lower strikes and more DTE if need be.
I am closing now in stating that I am fully aware that I could make myself into a fool if I get whipsawed with the pair of my trading ideas last week and today.
But as a premium seller you have much more "fuzzy room" where you maneuever about, before the market really tortures you. That is the case right now with these trades. You need not be that precise with predicting markets as with pure long/short, let along long options plays.
That's it. Good trading everyboday
I was more bearish then. But expiration week has come and gone and the SPX500 is simply bullish. it might be _somewhat_ bullish, it could also get _very_ bullish. Because what you see is a sidewise-to-down history that followed the tremendous bull market. This "consolidation pattern" lasted a full 15 months and seems to be left on the upside (breaking thru those blu lines.
As a premium seller, I sold premium on the upside last week, but reversed course on Friday already. The market is the master. I cannot go delta-short this market at this time. I sold premium on the downside as well, and am now removing the rest of the premium trades on the upside. They were call spreads (short 1 call out-of-the-money and long 1 call further otm) and this is done at a loss; typically some $5 to $7, multiplied x multiplyer 50 for the e-minis.
Experience has it, that typically there is no immediate crash out of a bullish pattern. If this is a bull trap here (who knows - I do not believe it but that does not matter), than an outright crash is still not likely, but consolidating sidewise is, again.
Therefore, Premium selling on the downside is my way to go. Sell wide put spreads; your short put 2000 or below; expiration May-31 or June or even September. Strike distance 100+ points. Sell fewer of them than you would on the upside. This is because of the skewed implied volatility distribution across strikes with that index put. Collect at least $10. You might choose much lower strikes, wide strike distance and go to September.
Good thing is, the downside premium trades are well "rollable" - roll to lower strikes and more DTE if need be.
I am closing now in stating that I am fully aware that I could make myself into a fool if I get whipsawed with the pair of my trading ideas last week and today.
But as a premium seller you have much more "fuzzy room" where you maneuever about, before the market really tortures you. That is the case right now with these trades. You need not be that precise with predicting markets as with pure long/short, let along long options plays.
That's it. Good trading everyboday
Comment:
I'd consider it _really_ bullish if we pass all time highs, we are not far from it anymore. Less than 2% I think