I have the feeling, that regardless what the FED will do and how they will communicate, SP500 is due for a short term correction. You know if a market is stretched and has internal divergences, then any news can be considered short term as bearish: "Rate hike or hawkish FED? -> oh, that's monetary conditions tightenning, bearish for stocks, sell!" or "FED is not so hawkish, moving dot plots lower! -> oh, they see some headwinds ag US economy, or have fear of global slowdown. They are not confident any more, maybe we shd sell stocks before economy turns down!"
Of course if market wants to go even higher in euphoria, then not even a rate hike could stop it!
This is why I think is rubbish guessing the FED, or trying to figure out which step or comment will casue what exactly. At the end of the day positionning matters more. Instead of wasting time debating FED, just pay attention to technicals and price action.
Daily:
- Ichimoku is bullish, but as I mentionned in prev. post price has reached a resistance area. Obviously if it closes above 2025, then the room will be open to 2050-60 next key level.
The 'W' price pattern is totally the same as in August-November/2015! Would be funny to see mkt acting same way, zig-zag with lower highs until May and then finally collapse again. :-)
- We have to note that Price moved from 1820 to 2020 without any pull back (market only had a few days of tight range consolidation only). By now price is way to far above Kijun Sen. This means two thing:
> as price tends to correct back towards equilibrium, while Kijun Sen is also catching up in time, Price has to get closer to its average sometimes.
> we can not talk about a major strategic bearish reversal until Kijun is so far from price, but we can focus on a pull back.
- Heikin-Ashi shows indecision, market is uncertain before FED... and as I believe and wrote above NOT BECAUSE of the FED. Today closing print will be very important together with haDelta.
- EWO is bullish
- Lower supports: 1996 (Tenkan), 1962 (100 WMA and spot Kumo)
4H:
- Ichimoku setup is still bullish biased, but future Kumo became thin, Senkou lines and Kijun Sen all flat, not pointing up.
- Short term key supports: 1995 and 1967 - wow, how nicely they match daily supports! :-)
- Heikin-Ashi is undecided, has bearish bias, with minor bearish divergence in haDelta.
- EWO is bullish, but also has negative divergence
Squeeze or fade? Or Squeeze and fade later? Don't guess, follow the price action and firm signals.
Of course if market wants to go even higher in euphoria, then not even a rate hike could stop it!
This is why I think is rubbish guessing the FED, or trying to figure out which step or comment will casue what exactly. At the end of the day positionning matters more. Instead of wasting time debating FED, just pay attention to technicals and price action.
Daily:
- Ichimoku is bullish, but as I mentionned in prev. post price has reached a resistance area. Obviously if it closes above 2025, then the room will be open to 2050-60 next key level.
The 'W' price pattern is totally the same as in August-November/2015! Would be funny to see mkt acting same way, zig-zag with lower highs until May and then finally collapse again. :-)
- We have to note that Price moved from 1820 to 2020 without any pull back (market only had a few days of tight range consolidation only). By now price is way to far above Kijun Sen. This means two thing:
> as price tends to correct back towards equilibrium, while Kijun Sen is also catching up in time, Price has to get closer to its average sometimes.
> we can not talk about a major strategic bearish reversal until Kijun is so far from price, but we can focus on a pull back.
- Heikin-Ashi shows indecision, market is uncertain before FED... and as I believe and wrote above NOT BECAUSE of the FED. Today closing print will be very important together with haDelta.
- EWO is bullish
- Lower supports: 1996 (Tenkan), 1962 (100 WMA and spot Kumo)
4H:
- Ichimoku setup is still bullish biased, but future Kumo became thin, Senkou lines and Kijun Sen all flat, not pointing up.
- Short term key supports: 1995 and 1967 - wow, how nicely they match daily supports! :-)
- Heikin-Ashi is undecided, has bearish bias, with minor bearish divergence in haDelta.
- EWO is bullish, but also has negative divergence
Squeeze or fade? Or Squeeze and fade later? Don't guess, follow the price action and firm signals.
