Shipman's Big Money Litttle Effort evaluated

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
300 4 3
In the following anallysis, I made a fundamental error in using Monthly periods for my Moving Averages. Shipman used Weekly periods, which worked a lot better.
In his book "Big Money Little Effort" (2007) Mark Shipman presented a "Winning Strategy for Profitable Long-Term Investment." He argued that the investor should not be guided by emotion, but by logic, should not try to buy low and sell high (i.e. predict highs and lows), but should follow a system. The system he advocated was to follow two Moving Averages, a 30 day and a 50 day MA. We should buy when the shorter-term MA moves above the longer-term MA and sell when the cross-over goes the other way. How would we have fared if we followed this advice since 1991? Well, I have pinpointed the sale-days on the chart, i.e., the points where the 50 day MA crossed over the 30-day, when we would have sold (6 Mar 2002, 1 Apr             2009) and the points where the 30-day moved over the 50-day (2 May 2005 and 1 Nov 2011). Starting off with a good run from 1991 to 2000, we would not have fared as well in the following years. We sold low in 2002, bought high in 2005, sold low again in 2009, but bought well in 2011. We would have been better advised to act more promptly in response to market changes, selling when the graph broke through the Support Line (and certainly when it moved down through the 30 day MA), and buying when it clearly broke through the Resistance Line (and certainly when it followed by breaking up through the 30 day MA). On the other hand, why wait? Every time the Index moved too high above the MA (though an even shorter period than 30 day might give a clearer picture) the Index was about to suffer a correction. The Index has at the present moved significantly above its 30 day MA, which presages a correction some time soon - before the end of 2014 - whether that correction be just a down-swing or a change in trend.
if you see the pattern is W that made is correction in 04/11{-785 }pip's. so the long rally start in 08/11 from 1135.
the end off this long should be at 1916. (1135+785) just then will down dip to 1266.
KrunchieKilleen hillelzacay
Thank you for this. Your prediction is very precise and utterly believable.
J.Murphy over at Stockcharts recommends a 17MA on Monthly I believe, I have quite good results with the combination of a pattern ( basing pattern extended ) and a 10MA & 40MA on Weekly. Very often nowadays I prefer a double Bollinger band. Thanks for sharing !
KrunchieKilleen fxtechtrader
Thanks for this. I intend following up on these tips.
EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
SV Svenska
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
VI Tiếng Việt
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 简体中文
ZH 繁體中文
AR العربية
Home Stock Screener Forex Screener Crypto Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Stock Charting Library Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing My Support Tickets Contact Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out