FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
10813 57 235
3 months ago
Hi Guys, the S&P             just completed the C wave with an ending diagonal so look for an up impulse. Any flag on a 60 would be a nice buy setup.
This is a forecasting chart, not an AFTER THE FACT this was my winning trade. So please use a tested strategy to trade it , if you don't have one STOP TRADING live and go back to learning.

Trade with care
Thank you for your support.
3 months ago
Comment: Monthly view
snapshot
3 months ago
Comment: Just a bigger correction still more up until trend is broken
snapshot
3 months ago
Comment:
snapshot
YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCmvABDWwbqRvh0QGAf-86_Q/videos
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Training : add to skype mangal457
alan_watch
3 months ago
Great as always... but we all know what will happen if Trump wins... best luck to all traders!
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anilmangal TOP alan_watch
3 months ago
LOL then I am the only one who don;t know what will happen!
+10 Reply
alan_watch anilmangal
3 months ago
yeah :) just being ironic to all the bears saying that this is the fall of the century ie. Brexit believers Deustche Bank believers Trump believers
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anilmangal TOP alan_watch
3 months ago
We are in the 5th wave of a 5 wave structure, so yes a fall coming soon but some more up first , i will post the monthly view.
+2 Reply
BhaktaBasics anilmangal
3 months ago
I understand that you only trade wave structure (not news, as you have no control over it) and therefore predict a 5th wave up before a bigger correction. Of course this is entirely possible however my question is this ... Do you truly believe that the 5th wave up will complete *regardless* of the huge list of events that could occur any day/week/month now e.g. Trump president, Deutsche Bank trouble, Euro issues, Italy referendum, China bubble, inflation, Bond bubble, major currency devaluation etc. etc. I repeat, i understand you have no control of or any idea of when any of these events could occur (if they occur at all) BUT if any or some of them did occur, do you believe the wave structures you trade would ignore said event and carry on it's merry way higher because it has to complete wave iv?
+2 Reply
anilmangal TOP BhaktaBasics
3 months ago
the wave structure will form "because of" all those events you named
+4 Reply
BhaktaBasics anilmangal
3 months ago
So if one or more of the black swan events listed were to occur, the market would ignore the panic and drive the wave structure higher to complete the 5th wave? - That doesn't seem logical to me. Or are you saying the wave structure will breakdown "because of" the mentioned events and create a new corrective structure (with a failed 5th wave)?
+1 Reply
anilmangal TOP BhaktaBasics
3 months ago
I am saying, ignore the news since you don't know what will happen or how the market will react to whatever happens so trading it is not possible.
+4 Reply
carl.vanhaes BhaktaBasics
3 months ago
I believe that I can respond, and it is certainly without any irony against anilmangal, who is generous enought to share all his analysis with us. But it might be irony against EW theory: if the evnts you mentioned do occur, such as Trump victory and Deutsche Bank crash, then the market will crash hard. You then will have to wait for a few days to see a lot of EWavers chart their suddenly discovered "alternative" count...
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BhaktaBasics carl.vanhaes
3 months ago
Yes and exactly the point I was trying to make. Wave structure is like art where pretty much everyone 'sees' different things and there is continuous shifting of goal posts. Whilst I agree with Anil that you can't predict the news nor the markets reaction to it, to completely ignore it is rather dangerous advice for beginners.
+1 Reply
anilmangal TOP BhaktaBasics
3 months ago
ok tell me what news even you foresaw in march 2015 that would have cause the GBPUSD to make this move?
https://www.facebook.com/ProwaveTrader/photos/a.807302639351218.1073741856.608186865929464/807302652684550/?type=3&theater
+1 Reply
anilmangal TOP anilmangal
3 months ago
The C wave down from 1.7 area.
+1 Reply
anilmangal TOP BhaktaBasics
3 months ago
But hey, you trade what works for you, I know one pinbar trader who lost so much trades that he has turn to posting charts after the fact, so anything that works for you.
+3 Reply
BhaktaBasics anilmangal
3 months ago
You appear to have gone on the defensive. No offence has been intended from me. I cannot predict the future and nor can you. I do not claim any one tool is the be all and end all of trading. If/when Deutsch bank goes pop and the SPX ignores it and carries on its 5th wave up, I will kneel to the power of wave analysis.
+1 Reply
sutarshan BhaktaBasics
3 months ago
I guess market will create certain patterns corresponding to the upcoming events or whatever it is and Mr.Anil is doing fabulous job with his analysis where he identifies the patterns regardless of events. I personally believe in trading what we can understand and interpret,which is the structures and the patterns on the chart rather than news events which we don't really understand what is going on back there,we don't have sufficient data to interpret news events,so just stick to whatever we have and make the analysis from that.
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KristianStefanov BhaktaBasics
2 months ago
@BhaktaBasics, Did you kneel after 5th waVE Poceeded with TRUM was elected..and soon this 5th will be complete - i.e. next year - most probably. So prepare to catch the correction if you can. Me personaly i don't believe i can so i would rely on the great knowledge Anil is sharing...
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BhaktaBasics KristianStefanov
2 months ago
@KristianStefanov, I believe I mentioned Deutsch bank failing and SPX rising as a criteria for me to kneel to the power of wave analysis. Having said that i must admit that i was surprised with the way the market rallied after trumps victory, so I am definitely giving EW theory more of my time now ...
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anilmangal TOP carl.vanhaes
3 months ago
@carl.vanhaes this also without irony but I hate to discussed when the opponent is speaking out of ignorance, if you were an expert on the theory we might have had a good discussion but it's the same as me trying to prove to a physicist that atoms don't exist because I can't see it.
+6 Reply
carl.vanhaes anilmangal
3 months ago
I did not insult you; at the contrary, I thanked you for sharing your analysis!! I thought this was a forum of discussion and I see no point of insulting me. I might be an ignorant in a lot of areas but that was not the point. And tell me that "alternate counts" in Elliott Wave theory do not exist. If you say so, then go look at Prechter predictions for the last 25 years (and he is just an example): he is annually ranked as the worst financial prediction newsletter globally. since he is in this adviser business, he never stopped showing his "alternative counts" after each bad call he did. Unfortunately, this did nothing to give back the fortunes lost by his subscribers. In reality, he has become one of the best "contrarian indicators" in the industry: when he starts advising his subs to "double short" it is usually time to buy. So, yes, the market is full of so-called advisers who just don't know what they are talking about. And I don't pretend to be an adviser. This said and again, I fail to understand why you are attacking me, because I found this discussion point with "BakhtaBasics" just interesting...why did you feel attacked? There were absolutely none intended!
+1 Reply
anilmangal TOP carl.vanhaes
3 months ago
@carl.vanhaes who is insulting? I just said we can't discuss EW because you have no knowledge of it. If i am wrong about that then please correct me. As to Precther and his predictions, i have shown many times that they are wrong, in my classes. What i do is more than just EW it is based on system that I have developed to identify what is a wave. So again you start a conversation out of ignorance and expect me to agree with you . I am not in the habit of talking out of ignorance, if i choose to talk about something i will first educate myself on the said topic.
+3 Reply
carl.vanhaes anilmangal
3 months ago
How can you say I am an ignorant in EW? Because I had some irony over some EW analysts? Then I am ignorant? Ok, so if somebody is emitting an opinion that you don't like, he is automatically qualified as ignorant. I would say that you have a very sensitive ego my good friend... Now, let me tell you this: I use EW as part of my trading arsenal and it is working well for me; so the irony was against some, and I say "some", so-called EW experts, not the theory itself. And you were not even part of those experts I was ironizing against. So, go have some walk or meditation and reset your good humor please...life is too short for those "I am smarter than you" discussions...
+1 Reply
anilmangal TOP carl.vanhaes
3 months ago
Ok since you asked, I really would appreciate if this had never happen but it did so here is why I "know you have no idea of EW" you don't think the 5th wave will happen. Infact if you were an elliott wave pro you would have known that the top of the 4 wave has already been broken thus qualifying for a 5th . I did not answer the question because I don't want to start an argument just for the sake of it . What we are looking for is where the 5th is going to end! You still want to keep this conversation going?
+1 Reply
carl.vanhaes anilmangal
3 months ago
More than ever! I also think that we are heading to a wave 5 for SP500. Actually I posted my counts in other blogs about this. If you read my posts more carefully you will see that, I have to say it again, I was talking about so-called EW gurus who don't really know what they are talking about. And I was NOT talking of you. I think that you over-reacted a little bit...
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puretradelife PRO carl.vanhaes
3 months ago
had a subscription to EWI, that had giving me signals for trades, learned much whith the Classes of Jeffrey Kennedy, but absolutely I stick with the Rules of Anil Mangal, though
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Elliottician_SamRoy carl.vanhaes
3 months ago
Hi. I was just scrolling down reading the comments and wanted to help if I could. My only purpose of writing this comment is to remove the confusion as much as I can. No offence intended :)
For EW Principle & Fundamentals & Market, think of it this way: "The Elliotticians believe that its not fundamentals that drive the markets, but in fact its market that drives the fundamentals". Price movement is nothing but a reflection of crowd psychology where :: Crowd = investors, traders, big boys (billionaires/gamblers), financial institutions, banks and everybody.
I hope it helps removing the confusion. . :)
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carl.vanhaes Elliottician_SamRoy
3 months ago
Thank you SamRoy, wise words
+1 Reply
lencanoot BhaktaBasics
3 months ago
Also consider that many news is anticipated and already partly part of the price.
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Elliottician_SamRoy BhaktaBasics
3 months ago
Hi. I was just scrolling down reading the comments and wanted to help if I could. My only purpose of writing this comment is to remove the confusion as much as I can. No offence intended :)
For EW Principle & Fundamentals & Market, think of it this way: "The Elliotticians believe that its not fundamentals that drive the markets, but in fact its market that drives the fundamentals". Price movement is nothing but a reflection of crowd psychology where :: Crowd = investors, traders, big boys (billionaires/gamblers), financial institutions, banks and everybody.
I hope it helps removing the confusion. . :)
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BhaktaBasics Elliottician_SamRoy
3 months ago
Almost :)
I can't get my head around the idea that markets can drive fundamentals.
EW is telling us there is to be a 5th wave which takes SPX to new highs. I can't believe that the market would ignore a black swan event (if it were to occur tomorrow) to complete that mission. Therein lies the confusion!
+2 Reply
Elliottician_SamRoy BhaktaBasics
3 months ago
And besides, the waves are never wrong but its us and our capability than can sometimes mislead us in wave counting and labeling. An example of "markets driving the fundamentals" is BREXIT. It was actually wave-3 pending which I was waiting since long time even when I didnt have a clue what Brexit was. Usually wave-3 is sharpest and fastest so it happened that day and what became the output - the Brexit news. Its a very very long topic to discuss dear. Just think of it this way, crowd psychology will lead us to the waves of different sizes and crowd psychology comes from Fear and Greed about upcoming events.. I hope its easy now. For example, big investors and insiders had a clue about Brexit a long time ago, right? so their investing psychology and pattern (order of Buying/Selling + Volume or size of lots) will draw the waves of different sizes and shapes on price chart and right before the wave-3 occurrence, the pattern on price chart or the fundamental situation will get a form and sentiment of big thing coming in certain direction and then you will see wave-3 happening on price chart. But guess what, only technical traders (precisely Elliotticians) would be able to predict this big move and dont misinterpret please, out of 100 Elliotticians, 95 will still be wrong 95% of the time :) I hope it makes a bit of sense but dear its a veryyyy long topic to discuss. I advice you to read the EW bible called "The Elliott Wave Principle-Key to Market Behavior" atleast once.
Good luck :)
+1 Reply
The_Observer anilmangal
3 months ago
Agreed. Still more upside before a breakdown of the bigger impulsive structure.

snapshot
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puretradelife PRO alan_watch
3 months ago
maybe there will be a spike up, then the move South, though
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faris.makki PRO
3 months ago
Anil please watch out for Trump
+1 Reply
pablo82
3 months ago
For me it is triangle.
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pablo82
3 months ago
Triangle which already has been broken to downside and move might be resumed when pullback is finished.
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anilmangal TOP pablo82
3 months ago
nice , post a chart so we can see it too
+3 Reply
pablo82 anilmangal
3 months ago
snapshot
+6 Reply
AL_G pablo82
3 months ago
@pablo82, i also think we drop
dont think we willsee new all time high on spx with a presidentswap
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winerstep
3 months ago
Oil prices increase planned pending agreement between OPEC members

Algerian Oil Minister said that agreement of the production slowdown would be finalized by the end of the month. At the same time, the significant decline last week oil prices has led many investors to seize the opportunity and buy cheap oil. The increase in demand, coupled with comments from OPEC members, has caused the oil price increase of more than 1.5% at the opening of trading in Asia today. However, the OPEC agreement should be finalized on 30 November and some analysts argue that even if it is implemented, it will perhaps not be enough to reverse recently observed the negative trend on the international prices of oil.
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The_Observer
3 months ago
Technical trading like most traders do here on Tradingview base our believes in the fundamental belief of technical trading: everything is reflected in the price (and it's historical pattern). Elliott is by many considered the father of all technical trading, and was kind enough to share his extensive research into price markets. What he found out is that everything around us (not just prices) do behave in the same type of patterns. Evolution itself has the same type of patterns. I.e. for something to progress it must correct for instance, it does so in an predictable pattern. Within trading we would rely or name it economic and mass psychology. Might sem hard to believe in the start, but try trading technicals for some months, and see yourself. It doesn't matter what happens with fundamentals for the technical trader.

The price patterns are for many traders a better way to make trading predictions. Actually the only experienced traders using fundamentals I believe, are top hedge fund manager moving a lot of money for position trading, and scalpers trading the news. All the other active traders with more than a couple of years on their back tend to use technical analyzes, why? because it have shown to be a better predictor! Anil has his own strategy based on wave analyses, and he should be respected for his kindness of sharing all his charts here on Tradingview. Understand that even though he has his own wave strategy he made himself, it is working, with a high success rate(!). And his strategy is logical for someone like me that has extensive experience and and expertise within an arsenal of both established technical trading strategies, as well as 6 year education within business and economics. Save Anil for all the discussions, take a look at all his past charts, and see that there actually is a high winning rate on his strategy. His time is better spent on his charts, instead of arguing and discussing fundamentals in regards to trading. To the technical trader, fundamental news are just considered - noise -. The fundamentals are indeed what makes mass psychological human behavior so predictable. Who wants noise really? joint the modern trading pits I suggest..stocktwits.com seems like a good place to start:s With Anil's ideas I suggest to do as the house rules and in general Tradingview encourage, bring positive criticism to the actual chart in the idea(!) :)
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BhaktaBasics The_Observer
3 months ago
I'm not sure if you were referring to me but i believe i asked a constructive question to help everyone better understand EW principals and how they would fit into the complex and unpredictable financial world we live in today. A potential answer to my question could have been ... "a truncated 5th wave could develop followed by down move" but then i'm not an expert in EW.
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anilmangal TOP BhaktaBasics
3 months ago
Not you , but truncated means it didn't break the top of wave 3 in this case it is already above the wave 3.
+1 Reply
The_Observer BhaktaBasics
3 months ago
It was just a general advise, not reffered to anyone.

at least according to my wave count on the picture in the comment above, we are already making a new high in the supposed fifth wave, so some correction need to take place. There is no truncated fifth wave here, at least not on my chart. Further the fifth wave seems not complete, so I am myself guessing more upside potential, before any major ABC correction.
+1 Reply
BhaktaBasics The_Observer
3 months ago
... and there's no clue in EW theory as to the magnitude of the 5th wave (other than it extending past wave 3)?
Also as an aside and purely out of interest ... if the SPX fails to make a new high and heads south instead what would your thoughts be then? i.e. Is there something in the manual that invalidates a wave structure or will it just be that Elliotticians were counting waves incorrectly?
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The_Observer BhaktaBasics
3 months ago
There will always be an alternative wave count. You know, there is no trading system/theory (as far as I know) that can provide you with more than around 65% success rate by strictly following it's rules.

You can't find a perfect trading system so anyone who tries should stop, -that includes Elliott wave theory as well. I myself use a set of different theories. My best tip is to not get to strict with rules of any theories. Just gather the best of them and build your own strategy. All established theories will anyway in the end most likely suggest the same patterns...so pick your favorites. Some of mine are Elliott wave theory, general geometrics, DOW theory, and candlestick methodology. I do as well like to get a good feeling of how the market sentiment is in whatever market I trade in. That is most often reflected in the pricechart, but I like to know of any major upcoming events that can give big price spikes, like Yellen og Dragi announcing breaking news that was not priced into the market on before hand.

In SPX now, there is a lot of uncertainty around the election. Markets never like uncertainty. Use VIX as a gauge. Besides that, it is a fact that the US economy is indeed in a good shape. We have interest rate that has started a positive leap after over 10 years being stuck.

For Forex i.e, you can just check the swap rates to gauge which currency has the most healthy economy.

And back to your question. I do not follow Elliot's wave theory strictly. But a fall now would give me the same impulsive structure as in my chart in post above predicting primarily wave, but we would start corrective wave A sooner that anticipated. That would be the change. I would perhaps look closer into how the fifth wave formed on a lower timescale to understand how it could happen. If 1950 is not broken, and long time impulsive trendline stays intact, I would keep looking for more upside and change of wave five's structure.

So summed up; We are waiting for primarily wave A to start, which is not confirmed before primarily impulsive purple trendline on my chart is broken.



I posted an idea some days ago, maybe describing the scenario better:
Strong potential reversal zone

+1 Reply
BhaktaBasics The_Observer
3 months ago
@The_Observer, I also use several tools as i don't believe any one has all the answers. EW is the one major tool I never really got to grips with (and therefore don't use) as it appeared very subjective to me. However, i have never dismissed it entirely and do keep coming back to trying to understand it better. I have read around the subject but it looks like i will need to give more of my time to learn it properly.
Since Trump has pulled off the unlikely the markets reacted strongly (as expected) but then quickly reversed (not so expected) to appear like nothing has happened. This i believe is giving more credence to EW theory and this ABC correction as you and Anil mention. The plot thickens ...
+1 Reply
Walentine
3 months ago
sell
+1 Reply
samjp2 PRO
3 months ago
So we buy this major selloff that is about to happen?
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BhaktaBasics
3 months ago
Thanks for the update Anil. If we are to assume the EW path (& theory) and use the wave counts you have included in your update i notice that wave i (of V) registered around 300 pips whilst wave iii (of V) registered around 200 pips. One of the basics rules of EW theory is, and i quote, "Elliott further discovered that in price terms, wave 3 is often the longest and never the shortest among the three actionary waves (1, 3 and 5) of a motive wave. As long as wave 3 undergoes a greater percentage movement than either wave 1 or 5, this rule is satisfied."
Since wave 3 so far has been the shortest at ~200 pips it should follow that wave iv (of V) will be no more than ~200 pips. Further, if we assume that we have just had the C (in the ABC 4th wave correction as in your chart) which measured ~2033 then the 5th and final wave CANNOT go further than 2233. It has to go beyond 2193 (wave iii high) since the 5th wave is a motive wave and has to make progress. In summary, the 5th wave has to land between 2193 and 2233. i.e. a nominal new high before we have our major correction. This is just my interpretation of using EW to try and make a useful prediction for trading purposes.
Would appreciate your (and any other Elliotician's) thoughts ...
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The_Observer
3 months ago
@BhaktaBasics, never give up. Remember to grasp the essence of the theories and form your own. By that you develop the confidence you need to have a change becoming successful in trading, which is really only economic psychology. Google this "Elliott-Wave-Basics.pdf" and download it. It covers the basics, and is all you really need. Research more on the topics discussed in this 50 page guide if you do not understand them. Use investopedia.com to quickly get a quick and better understanding of different topics discussed in the guide. I would look up on Investopedia; DOW theory, Fibonacci levels in trading, and geomtrics.

Regarding what is happening in this market now, I have to agree with Anil, we are in a strong uptrend, which only so far have seen smaller healthy corrections over the years. I had expected a much more harsh drop if Trump got elected, so the dip we saw tonight is a good sign for further upside ahead. -Often, change is just healthy. Remember how a wave in Elliott wave theory evolves; an impulse needs a correction to continue to its progress.
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BhaktaBasics The_Observer
3 months ago
@The_Observer, I appreciate you taking the time to respond. Regardless of how it may look, I can assure you I am not a beginner in trading. The purpose of my posts in this discussion are to establish whether EW theory is useful for me to use as 'part' of my tool kit.
In my post I used the most basic governing rules of EW theory to make sense of Anil's/your chart and wave count. These rules were taken from the pdf you kindly posted (Which I actually had already). This 5th wave is clearly a 'diagonal triangle' rather than impulse, since wave 4 overlapped wave 1, but regardless, it's still a motive wave and therefore the rule still holds that wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave.
If the above is true then, in your opinion, is there anything wrong with the conclusion in my previous post?

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BhaktaBasics BhaktaBasics
3 months ago
@BhaktaBasics, Sorry i've just seen from your other post that you have a different wave count to Anil. Where Anil has 3 waves, you have counted as 1.
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The_Observer BhaktaBasics
3 months ago
@BhaktaBasics, please post a chart of your view and I'll have a look at it:)
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BhaktaBasics The_Observer
3 months ago
@The_Observer, Sorry there's been some confusion here. Let me try and explain ...
1) Anil posted this idea about SPX with an update showing wave count for this 5th wave (please see in update section).
2) I used his chart to predict a potential magnitude for the 5th wave (using the rules of EW theory as i understand it). This gave a prediction for the 5th wave to land at no more than 2233 (since wave 3 cannot be the smallest in magnitude). Please see my previous post on this to see how i arrived at such a conclusion.
3) It is this conclusion i was looking for an opinion on.
4) However, I have since realised that your chart (posted below) shows a completely different wave count to Anil's
5) Therefore, since you're in disagreement with Anil you will also be in disagreement with my conclusions which are based on Anil's chart/wave count.
Cheers.
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The_Observer
3 months ago
snapshot


Possible further projection of the fifth intermediate wave (purple).
+1 Reply
TheWave
3 months ago
I was just looking at the 3rd week of December which will be Friday December is 16th for this year due to us starting the 1st of December on Thursday. Every year over the last year we had huge moves or as I would call reversal days. These reversals for that particular week are 600 points on up. After the dip we had a huge reversal (pullback) to the same levels roughly from where they dropped off of.

Look at link below and go back to 3rd week of December for the years of 2015 and 2014. The 3rd week is when the last quarter of futures expire. This year it happens to be Friday the 16th. We should have a contest to see who can play and time this right for a possibility of big money to be made during that week if this year plays out like the last 2 years did.

http://www.investing.com/indices/us-30-chart
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TakaOhashi
2 months ago
do you think the rally will continue at this pace? If so, will it the wave end around 2400
Reply
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