Marek99

Short term view and war inflection point, game theory

FX:SPX500   S&P 500 index of US listed shares
616 12 6
Using game theory and other tools: War inflection point is forming around 7/31/15 thus this will send stocks to a nice correction, which some argue is overdue.

Rise of the machine is coming, while corporate entities are slow to adopt human work-task reduction due to automated AI systems and robots, profit potential can't be ignored and it wont. This is a moving train effect, and the train has left the station. Next 5 years will be unlike any other in history.

The onset of this AI evolution will make the last industrial revolution a drop in the bucket.

True volatility has been removed by what Mr. Ben Bernanke has done, a genius in its own class. Did he foresee the coming rise of the machine? What Ms             Yellen is trying to do is make a compromise between Mr. Bernanke's policy and "normalization" - it will fail
ChartArt
2 years ago
Interesting chart. Can you point me to some explanation how you arrived with an calculation at this "war inflection point" around 7/31/15?

Here is my bearish S&P 500 chart, which is only valid if Greece defaults:
China crash, Greece almost out of cash - A bearish 2015 scenario
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ChartArt ChartArt
2 years ago
BTW: The Renko you are using is not configured properly. Since a year has 12 months I would use period 12 not 10 on your RNK indicator which uses monthly data for the average true range calculation.
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ChartArt ChartArt
2 years ago
There is a big difference between looking at the yearly trend and only a 10 month trend. I made a comparison:

Period 10 (therefore a 10 month look-back, as used on your chart)
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Period 12 (therefore a 12 month look-back, how I would trade)
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Marek99 PRO ChartArt
2 years ago
I like the 10 better, as far as the prediction goes, its more then just one tool like game theory...

I also run outcomes on Iran talks, France deals, Egypt.. my cpu power to calculate everything is super low by contrast, and takes a while. I have plans to expand my CPU power soon and then I can time things. Debating rent or buy CPU time...
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ChartArt Marek99
2 years ago
I also noticed that

a) calculating it now 2 days later shows you a different Renko level, you now have to use period 9 to see something similar
b) calculating it on SPX or ES1 or SP1 instead of SPX500 also shows you other different Renko levels


Period 9 on SPX500
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Period 10 on SPX500
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Period 12 on SPX500
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Period 9 on SPX
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Period 10 on SPX
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Period 12 on SPX
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Period 9 on E-mini S&P500
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Period 10 on E-mini S&P500
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Period 12 on E-mini S&P500
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Period 9 on S&P500 future, SP1
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Period 10 on S&P500 future, SP1
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Period 12 on S&P500 future, SP1
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ChartArt ChartArt
2 years ago
one more:


Period 9 on SPY, S&P500 ETF
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Period 10 on SPY, S&P500 ETF
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Period 12 on SPY, S&P500 ETF
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ChartArt ChartArt
2 years ago
My conclusion with much higher periods comparing all symbols:

SPX500 does not give you the optimal information. The other symbols more closely show what the SPX index trend is, while SPX500 is way off from that level.
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ChartArt ChartArt
2 years ago
even one more:


Period 9 on ProShares S&P500
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Period 10 on ProShares S&P500
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Period 12 on ProShares S&P500
snapshot
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ChartArt ChartArt
2 years ago
finding all S&P 500 info :) one more


Period 9 on Direxion S&P500 3x
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Period 10 on Direxion S&P500 3x
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Period 12 on Direxion S&P500 3x
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ChartArt ChartArt
2 years ago
SPY is 1x leveraged, SSO 2x and SPXL 3x

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2041253-using-leveraged-etfs-with-a-market-timing-system-spy-sso-sds-spxl-spxs
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Marek99 PRO ChartArt
2 years ago
That's alot of charts, I went thru some of them, interesting....
Game theory alone is not a good tool to calculate timing with limited CPU power, so I use other tools to point towards inflection points etc.
There current above inflection point is minor, the bigger inflection point is scheduled for 10-01-2015. However again that is a rough date. If I only had more cpus.... lol
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Market_Masta
a year ago
On point.
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