TSP (Thrift Savings Plan) - BUY
BLUF: The DC Clown-Circuit and the Fed are about as incompetent as they get…I/we do not care what you believe or what your politics are, this assessment is about seeing opportunity for TSP folks or any other retirement accounts and increasing our advantage toward increased-returns in our retirement accounts for a better/safer future! For those unaffiliated w/Govy/Mil terms…BLUF = Bottom Line Up Front :)
Current Assessment: Macro: Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 2% by CalculatedRisk on 5/12/19/CPI @ 2%. The Macro keeps chugging along, not great but not a recession.
Last Week: Lower Highs and Lower Lows with a 2.2% Pullback not a correction
Trade-War Narrative: The longer it takes to get to a deal, the lower the probability that such a deal will constitute a decisive end to trade tensions.
Next Trade-War meeting: None on the calendar until the G20 Summit in Japan on 28-29June.
Current: World Indices are ALL down, US Futures Down 350 points. Understand the media/political spin and when something becomes common knowledge, then and only then do certain narratives drive markets…TradeWar: ”So for now we assume the escalation has a relatively small impact on the medium term outlook. It adds to the case for weak capital spending, but does not alter our global "soft landing" scenario. The risk is that markets take time to create enough pain and some persistent damage is made to the global economy. The subsequent upside would then be smaller. Meanwhile the next few weeks could be rocky.”
Note: Read the last TSP chart on 5/11/19. Looks like another potential “Pullback-Week” in the markets let it develop and make your decision to reallocate by the end of the week and continue to watch the narratives develop. What are the narratives?
Narrative-One: Trade-War -Tensions…Yes or No, every week that goes bye w/out a solution increases the odds of a “NO-Trade-War-Deal” and bigger selloffs coming. Another reason to average in and always keep some in reserve for future unpredictable anomalies.
Narrative-Two: Inflation…Geopolitical Crises: Iran, Venezuela and WTI/OIL…this could overnight reflect in the inflation picture, along w/Trade-War
Narrative-Three: Fed Rate Cut potentially 4th QTR, it would be great to see the Fed get ahead of the problem but they never do, they always react after the fact to changing Macro/Global conditions.
COA1: BUY into C,S or both with the setup by end of the week, keeping a portion in reserve.
COA2: HOLD in either G or F in awaiting a Trade-War deal, w/no solution, bigger selloffs coming, with even better entry points.
Short-Term (2019): TradeWar driven market, either the current wager is they meet in the middle further driving the markets higher or they do not with further selloffs coming but not a recession yet???
Long-Term (2020): The macro is chugging along, I agree with the "smartypants" who do not see a correction in 2019, but the odds are much higher in 2020 and we need a REAL-Correction really bad to reset the current environment…TBD!
Methodology: Bare-Bones-Technical Analysis validated by the Macro data with increased situational-awareness always on-the “Narrative-Driving-Media-Machine” in the periphery.
Disclosure: This is a weekly assessment that I provide for my own learning that I share with others to form their own educated assessment. I am a TSP participant and my current allocation is 100% in the F-Fund, currrently awaiting the setup with a buy into C, S or both by the end of the week. Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 04/30/2019 is 33.36%. (Your PIP is posted by the 3rd business day of each month.) I am a 29-year military veteran and current civil servant in the government. Thanks for reading!
BLUF: The DC Clown-Circuit and the Fed are about as incompetent as they get…I/we do not care what you believe or what your politics are, this assessment is about seeing opportunity for TSP folks or any other retirement accounts and increasing our advantage toward increased-returns in our retirement accounts for a better/safer future! For those unaffiliated w/Govy/Mil terms…BLUF = Bottom Line Up Front :)
Current Assessment: Macro: Q2 GDP Forecasts: Around 2% by CalculatedRisk on 5/12/19/CPI @ 2%. The Macro keeps chugging along, not great but not a recession.
Last Week: Lower Highs and Lower Lows with a 2.2% Pullback not a correction
Trade-War Narrative: The longer it takes to get to a deal, the lower the probability that such a deal will constitute a decisive end to trade tensions.
Next Trade-War meeting: None on the calendar until the G20 Summit in Japan on 28-29June.
Current: World Indices are ALL down, US Futures Down 350 points. Understand the media/political spin and when something becomes common knowledge, then and only then do certain narratives drive markets…TradeWar: ”So for now we assume the escalation has a relatively small impact on the medium term outlook. It adds to the case for weak capital spending, but does not alter our global "soft landing" scenario. The risk is that markets take time to create enough pain and some persistent damage is made to the global economy. The subsequent upside would then be smaller. Meanwhile the next few weeks could be rocky.”
Note: Read the last TSP chart on 5/11/19. Looks like another potential “Pullback-Week” in the markets let it develop and make your decision to reallocate by the end of the week and continue to watch the narratives develop. What are the narratives?
Narrative-One: Trade-War -Tensions…Yes or No, every week that goes bye w/out a solution increases the odds of a “NO-Trade-War-Deal” and bigger selloffs coming. Another reason to average in and always keep some in reserve for future unpredictable anomalies.
Narrative-Two: Inflation…Geopolitical Crises: Iran, Venezuela and WTI/OIL…this could overnight reflect in the inflation picture, along w/Trade-War
Narrative-Three: Fed Rate Cut potentially 4th QTR, it would be great to see the Fed get ahead of the problem but they never do, they always react after the fact to changing Macro/Global conditions.
COA1: BUY into C,S or both with the setup by end of the week, keeping a portion in reserve.
COA2: HOLD in either G or F in awaiting a Trade-War deal, w/no solution, bigger selloffs coming, with even better entry points.
Short-Term (2019): TradeWar driven market, either the current wager is they meet in the middle further driving the markets higher or they do not with further selloffs coming but not a recession yet???
Long-Term (2020): The macro is chugging along, I agree with the "smartypants" who do not see a correction in 2019, but the odds are much higher in 2020 and we need a REAL-Correction really bad to reset the current environment…TBD!
Methodology: Bare-Bones-Technical Analysis validated by the Macro data with increased situational-awareness always on-the “Narrative-Driving-Media-Machine” in the periphery.
Disclosure: This is a weekly assessment that I provide for my own learning that I share with others to form their own educated assessment. I am a TSP participant and my current allocation is 100% in the F-Fund, currrently awaiting the setup with a buy into C, S or both by the end of the week. Your Personal Investment Performance (PIP) for the past 12 months ending 04/30/2019 is 33.36%. (Your PIP is posted by the 3rd business day of each month.) I am a 29-year military veteran and current civil servant in the government. Thanks for reading!