TSP (Thrift Savings Plan) - NEUTRAL (Update 5/17/19)
TSP Current Allocation: 100% F-Fund, taking profits and waiting for another entry point!
SPX: The current wedge trend has broken and the divergence in the charts shows weakness with a possible Top being made with no other triggers in the narrative driving machine.
My channel prior to the pullback was 3000-3500, I now would adjust that to 3000-3200 in the SPX with a positive Trade-War outcome, I do not think the Fed will get ahead of the downtrending macro but will react and the lag time will be pretty much a zero-sum-game given inflation numbers which will go up moderately every day the tariffs take effect...Tariffs are a tax and only consumers will pay that tax, end-of-story! I am loosing confidence in the TW narrative, every week the TW-kick-the-can-down-the-road and the market blows it off like this current rebound which proves to me any positive effect is already priced into the market, if the TW is still going on in the fall, at some point the building wave of BS will take over and Mr. Market will call BS and sell off, macro continues to down trend but not a recession.
***Onto-The-Next-Ridgeline:
23 May UK holds elections, the following week Parliament is out of session, 03Jun they come back to a new UK leader and at some point have to face a Brexit reality....US markets are at the end of a very long bull market, Europe is a place where global markets will invest and there are always at least 12 months or more lag between Europe/Asia and US in Up or Down trend economies,,,I see opportunity in the I-Fund, looking at taking a position in the week of 03June,,,,I see uncertainty and a BUY opportunity with good upside! Moving-on, time to take profits and look outside what the media is not talking about yet! But as we go forward the probabilities increase for more "DEC18" type market events, as they happen I will always have some in reserve to take full advantage of those opportunities!!! The Global liquidity crunch of the USD Squeeze is upon us and at some point the FED and other global central banks will be forced into reacting, will there reaction be correct or the most beneficial solution....who knows, I wouldn't bet on it!
SPX: The current wedge trend has broken and the divergence in the charts shows weakness with a possible Top being made with no other triggers in the narrative driving machine.
My channel prior to the pullback was 3000-3500, I now would adjust that to 3000-3200 in the SPX with a positive Trade-War outcome, I do not think the Fed will get ahead of the downtrending macro but will react and the lag time will be pretty much a zero-sum-game given inflation numbers which will go up moderately every day the tariffs take effect...Tariffs are a tax and only consumers will pay that tax, end-of-story! I am loosing confidence in the TW narrative, every week the TW-kick-the-can-down-the-road and the market blows it off like this current rebound which proves to me any positive effect is already priced into the market, if the TW is still going on in the fall, at some point the building wave of BS will take over and Mr. Market will call BS and sell off, macro continues to down trend but not a recession.
***Onto-The-Next-Ridgeline:
23 May UK holds elections, the following week Parliament is out of session, 03Jun they come back to a new UK leader and at some point have to face a Brexit reality....US markets are at the end of a very long bull market, Europe is a place where global markets will invest and there are always at least 12 months or more lag between Europe/Asia and US in Up or Down trend economies,,,I see opportunity in the I-Fund, looking at taking a position in the week of 03June,,,,I see uncertainty and a BUY opportunity with good upside! Moving-on, time to take profits and look outside what the media is not talking about yet! But as we go forward the probabilities increase for more "DEC18" type market events, as they happen I will always have some in reserve to take full advantage of those opportunities!!! The Global liquidity crunch of the USD Squeeze is upon us and at some point the FED and other global central banks will be forced into reacting, will there reaction be correct or the most beneficial solution....who knows, I wouldn't bet on it!