Looking at :
S&P500
EURCHF
EURJPY
USDCAD
CADJPY
CADCHF
(AUDUSD)
AUDCAD
USDNOK
S&P500 has seen a slight negative trend last week due in part to concerns about the second wave. Friday closed slightly more than -200bps certainly pushed by some positions closed before the weekend and amid the need for the market to find new narratives. This slight risk off move was somehow completed by a little ~-250bps in WTI, an important break out in XAU. However, I would classify it as a shy risk off as these moves are by no mean close to several std from the mean. As well, cyclical currencies have seen little to nothing move amid the rising concerns of the second wave.
As previously, I would be more inclined to be buyer on the lows and I am personally looking for a potential entry around 2950/3000 on the S&P500, unless the narratives changes for a full country having issues with the second wave.
DXY looking for the daily 200MA around 98.3 for a potential resistance.
Yen : I would be more inclined to look for a long as the trading order flow expected should be on the buy side of the dollar. However, I really see limited upside as the slight RORO regime is still there and we have some technical resistance above.
CHF : last Friday buy ended up as a break-even as we failed to go further above 95 handle. I still do think the path of least resistance is to the upside but I do have the same opinion as the yen concerning the market regime. The 2 days max range has been 350bps ... that reveals how little the currency is moving.
EUR: Important to note, the golden cross (200MA vs 50MA) has been made last week in EURUSD. The DXY's next resistance should coincide with the 11 / 11.5 handle on EURUSD. At this point, I may have a slight short bias as EoQ USD buying flow may push it to the downside and equities probably still need some time before pushing up. I will look at the possible double bottom for a long but it will certainly not present itself. Adding EUR longs through EURCHF may be a good trade. Technically sitting at the 50MA. 1.06 handle may be great support. For a recall, the SNB was certainly active around 1.05. If we do not have another big shock, the skew is to the upside. EURJPY is another interesting one for the week ahead. A double bottom around the 200MA may give an entry opportunity.
Pound :
Pound seems to shout for a break of the support, with GBPCHF already broken. Next week Brexit talks should provide more clarity in the matter. At this point, I will be cautious to bid the pound even though it's at nice value across the board. EURGBP 91 handle may act as resistance.
CAD : we are getting some value price on the CAD for people that may want to be long. 375/38 handle is on my lookout with important technical levels and a way to enter a cyclical on the same narrative as explained. CADJPY at 77.50 and 78.50 are levels I am watching. 69 handle on CADCHF.
AUD : since mid june, a lot of volume has gone through the ~69 handle. First, it is important to note that the correlation between equities is one of the best with the Aussie. However, I do not like in general buying the highs and I feel I would be doing so in Aussie. Currently 68.5 handle may act as a support but the fact that the price spent so much time there and that the pre crisis level is almost 1 handle and half lower does not make me willing to take risk there. If an opportunity presents, 70 handle may be my ultimate target.
AUDCAD may be a great short. A lot of people looking at the same resistance on the daily so I would like to see a clear price action to enter short. Hard target 92 handle.
Kiwi : very much similar to Aussie, if prices go to 63 handle then I'll start to be interested.
NOK/SEK : USDNOK 9.9/10 handle is at interest for me. These countries have been speaking more hawkish recently and the risk on move may be a fade.
S&P500
EURCHF
EURJPY
USDCAD
CADJPY
CADCHF
(AUDUSD)
AUDCAD
USDNOK
S&P500 has seen a slight negative trend last week due in part to concerns about the second wave. Friday closed slightly more than -200bps certainly pushed by some positions closed before the weekend and amid the need for the market to find new narratives. This slight risk off move was somehow completed by a little ~-250bps in WTI, an important break out in XAU. However, I would classify it as a shy risk off as these moves are by no mean close to several std from the mean. As well, cyclical currencies have seen little to nothing move amid the rising concerns of the second wave.
As previously, I would be more inclined to be buyer on the lows and I am personally looking for a potential entry around 2950/3000 on the S&P500, unless the narratives changes for a full country having issues with the second wave.
DXY looking for the daily 200MA around 98.3 for a potential resistance.
Yen : I would be more inclined to look for a long as the trading order flow expected should be on the buy side of the dollar. However, I really see limited upside as the slight RORO regime is still there and we have some technical resistance above.
CHF : last Friday buy ended up as a break-even as we failed to go further above 95 handle. I still do think the path of least resistance is to the upside but I do have the same opinion as the yen concerning the market regime. The 2 days max range has been 350bps ... that reveals how little the currency is moving.
EUR: Important to note, the golden cross (200MA vs 50MA) has been made last week in EURUSD. The DXY's next resistance should coincide with the 11 / 11.5 handle on EURUSD. At this point, I may have a slight short bias as EoQ USD buying flow may push it to the downside and equities probably still need some time before pushing up. I will look at the possible double bottom for a long but it will certainly not present itself. Adding EUR longs through EURCHF may be a good trade. Technically sitting at the 50MA. 1.06 handle may be great support. For a recall, the SNB was certainly active around 1.05. If we do not have another big shock, the skew is to the upside. EURJPY is another interesting one for the week ahead. A double bottom around the 200MA may give an entry opportunity.
Pound :
Pound seems to shout for a break of the support, with GBPCHF already broken. Next week Brexit talks should provide more clarity in the matter. At this point, I will be cautious to bid the pound even though it's at nice value across the board. EURGBP 91 handle may act as resistance.
CAD : we are getting some value price on the CAD for people that may want to be long. 375/38 handle is on my lookout with important technical levels and a way to enter a cyclical on the same narrative as explained. CADJPY at 77.50 and 78.50 are levels I am watching. 69 handle on CADCHF.
AUD : since mid june, a lot of volume has gone through the ~69 handle. First, it is important to note that the correlation between equities is one of the best with the Aussie. However, I do not like in general buying the highs and I feel I would be doing so in Aussie. Currently 68.5 handle may act as a support but the fact that the price spent so much time there and that the pre crisis level is almost 1 handle and half lower does not make me willing to take risk there. If an opportunity presents, 70 handle may be my ultimate target.
AUDCAD may be a great short. A lot of people looking at the same resistance on the daily so I would like to see a clear price action to enter short. Hard target 92 handle.
Kiwi : very much similar to Aussie, if prices go to 63 handle then I'll start to be interested.
NOK/SEK : USDNOK 9.9/10 handle is at interest for me. These countries have been speaking more hawkish recently and the risk on move may be a fade.