This_Guhy

SPXUSD Volatility Stops and 9Season (4h, 12h, 1d)

Short
FOREXCOM:SPX500   S&P 500 Index
Partly working on a new indicator set so these ideas are part me working out my thoughts. see more at the bottom for those thoughts. The two volatility based stops, the VSTOP and the Chandelier, are both based off the average true range. Link to the 9Season idea
Key points for all timeframes
Support fails
Volatility stops flip bearish
(mostly) Bearish 9 season rainbow.

4h
Price action for the ending of both uptrend shows price action finally breaking the black trendline then consolidation at the red arrow before the next leg down with both the Chandelier and VSTOP creating a ceiling.

The 9 Season for the first bearish move showed yellow on multiple timeframes (which is clear resistance) and the lowest timeframe flickered lime green which is crazy overbought and generally unsustainable This current uptrend has flicked straight to bearish for 4 timeframes and at the highest timeframe has gone from yellow to lime green to weak bull. I expect it to go to bearish shortly as well.

12h
The volatility stop for both movements still show the price action slipped the trendline and the volatility stops created a ceiling. The last move down had yellow at the higgher timeframes which was proved to be very bearish. The higher time frames for this move down are still green for a bullish move but the lower timeframes are yelling exhaustion. With the 4h timeframes looking so bearish I expect the 9Season to look bearish on all timeframes shortly.

1d
for the last leg down the 9Season lagged a clear entry until the lowest timeframe went yellow to red and that was no better than shorting the trendline break. Also currently there is no daily signal on the 9Season. But the Volatility based stops were in pretty good agreement.

Currently the different volatility stops are not in agreement. The VStop said we should have gone short either the last trading day or the day before, using the VSTOP beneath the trendline as a sell stop (very provisional notion here) while the Chandelier has us stopped out. The chandelier would have had you in the uptrend trade from 2640 to 3000 which is pretty good. The Vstop would have had you on this uptrend from 2450 to about 2773 then if you reentered from 2773 to 3170. Not bad either but re-entering is psychologically difficult.


In conclusion
4h - Bearish and short
12h Bearish and short
1d Mixed, either close long and wait for clearer signal or use V-Stop

Not financial advise as I am not a certified market technician, and this is a new system I am trying to work on. Have the same problems as many, not letting my winners run and not cutting my loses soon enough so my account could have gone up a whole lot more than it did the last 4 months.

One thing I am looking at is changing the VSTOP and Chaelier setting to 2.1 or 2.2 to avoid some of those narrow wickouts . Prioritizing letting my winners run by giving them just a bit more space than getting a super quick entry. Other things I am looking at is doing some of my standard TA (MACD, OBV divergence, Bollinger band, etc) at one time frame, and then cutting the time fame in half to look for my entry. So if I am looking at a weekly chart for a move that could last months I would be looking at entry on the 3d chart. If I am looking at the daily chart for a move that should last a week or two? Maybe a month? Enter on the 12h (crypto, futures) or 4h (normie securities).

Still very provisional.

And I promise every Floridian that you will all be rich... because we're gonna print some more money! Why didn't anybody ever think of this before?

~Nathan Explosion
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