SMP99
Short

SPY Tue 9-30 A Break in the downtrend....maybe.

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
spy
335 29 3
spy
9-30: Pre-market SPY             shows a gap up open above the trend line . Something I've been watching for lately. But a failed breakout is also a scenario I've noted and this might just be the set-up. For the break out to hold we need to see a successful retest and hold of that upper channel. If successful 198.36 then 199.21 comes into play.

Otherwise, i'm watching yesterday's ascending trend line . A break of that line might be the cue that we are due to go back into the channel. A fail at this level could also send us all the way back down to the bottom part of channel through tomorrow.

If we get a breakdown levels i'm watching:
196.75, 196.10, 194.95
Consumer Confidence readings at 10 am est. Should be critical in deciding direction.
+1 Reply
SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
I agree. So far, pre-market opened exactly at the levels we discussed yesterday. Are you waiting for the 945 report before any positioning?
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Yes. waiting till 9:45. It is actually higher than what we thought it would price.
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
198 open was thrown out as a scenario...198.05-198.20 is what i've been seeing. Also watching Friday's high. 198.38 i believe.
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Yeah if we hold above 198.4 for more than 15 mins, I would think there is a trend change.
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
Agreed.
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
From the 8-7 bottom I referenced yesterday....similar setups.
snapshot
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yes that is similar.

Watch this also on Thursday around noon, ECB Monetary policy statement and press conference. Could spark a mini bull rally
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1st target hit 196.75. Fail there and 196.10 might be up pretty quick.
+2 Reply
yeah agree
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Pre-Market Volatility needs to be injected in discussions. Killed the perfect trade
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snapshot
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been here since 1015 yesterday
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Probably will be range bound for rest of day
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
could get interesting if goes below this morning lows
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Agree
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snapshot
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This might keep it interesting tommorrow.
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Swinging every which way today
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SMP99 PRO QuantitativeExhaustion
Yeah what a mess
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Might get my target today
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You are so very accurate with your SPY target. Right now it is at the blue suport line. If you get achance, could you please post another updated one both for 5 min and 15 min.
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SMP99 PRO greenplay
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Next level i'm watching is 194.40ish
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SMP99 PRO greenplay
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SMP99 PRO greenplay
Unfortunately I haven't had time to review next targets below 194.40
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Thank you so very much for posting very informative trading information for not so good technically sound person like myself. Your effort is much appreciated and I look forward to your analysis.
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SMP99 PRO hakunamatata
Thanks for the comment and your welcome. Unfortunately the next move won't be quite as easy to predict as the move down to 194.. We bounced off the lower part the channel. I expect some swings in both directions tomorrow.
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