SPY possible bounce to the 38.2% fib before the last wave down
If SPY starts to get a bounce on the daily, then it could see resistance near the 428 area at the 38.2% retrace of the last leg down.
Price is getting somewhat extended from the 21ema, and am expecting a correction in time or price in the near term...
I see this current Elliott Wave scenario as possibly being in the C wave down of a correction that started after the 01/04/22 highs.
C waves must have a 5 wave structure.
Once a bounce starts, it could be the 4th wave, and 4th waves typically retrace the 3rd wave by about 38.2% (most common).
I will be watching for possible short entries in the 428 area, with fib and elliott wave targets from 406.75 down to 393.38.
Price is getting somewhat extended from the 21ema, and am expecting a correction in time or price in the near term...
I see this current Elliott Wave scenario as possibly being in the C wave down of a correction that started after the 01/04/22 highs.
C waves must have a 5 wave structure.
Once a bounce starts, it could be the 4th wave, and 4th waves typically retrace the 3rd wave by about 38.2% (most common).
I will be watching for possible short entries in the 428 area, with fib and elliott wave targets from 406.75 down to 393.38.
Comment:
SPY looking good and following the original forecast.
Has bounced to the levels stated above, and then dropped.
It has now hit 2 major fib setup targets ($406.75 stated on 4/28), and the beginning of the target box for the Elliott Wave projections for the possible end of the C Wave down.
Starting to look seriously at longer dated calls here. FOMC will be key on Wednesday
Also, whenever CPI comes out next, if we have another print smaller than expectations or even a downtick markets can rip higher.
If this correction plays out the way it looks at the moment, it could set the market up for a test of All Time Highs.
See what FOMC brings in a couple days
Has bounced to the levels stated above, and then dropped.
It has now hit 2 major fib setup targets ($406.75 stated on 4/28), and the beginning of the target box for the Elliott Wave projections for the possible end of the C Wave down.
Starting to look seriously at longer dated calls here. FOMC will be key on Wednesday
Also, whenever CPI comes out next, if we have another print smaller than expectations or even a downtick markets can rip higher.
If this correction plays out the way it looks at the moment, it could set the market up for a test of All Time Highs.
See what FOMC brings in a couple days
Comment:
Here is an alternate idea...
Original EW projections have SPY on the 5th wave down of the C Wave.
This current 405 area COULD be near the end of the 3rd wave of the C wave.
This would mean a possible bounce up for the 4th wave to the 422 area, then final the 5th wave down into 394 - 380 areas.
Will see what kind of a bounce and the FOMC brings
Original EW projections have SPY on the 5th wave down of the C Wave.
This current 405 area COULD be near the end of the 3rd wave of the C wave.
This would mean a possible bounce up for the 4th wave to the 422 area, then final the 5th wave down into 394 - 380 areas.
Will see what kind of a bounce and the FOMC brings
Zone between the 38.2 - 50% retracement