claydoctor

SPY (and by proxy the US equity markets) momet of truth

Short
AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
2
The SPY is at a moment of truth. Its been indecisive for a while now, and it is running out of time (chart time), in its symmetrical Bulkowski triangle, gold fill, blue outline. It has completely abandoned its respect for its previous channel, and it certainly ignored and is ignoring that channel's bottom TL. It has bounced 3 times of the horizontal support of 198 (ish). Its similarities to 2008 are striking. 58 days of this Symm Triangle (red vertical) would be 60% of its trek to apex. If we get down to 182, that would be a 13% correction , similar to a correction in kind back in 2008 of 12.69%. Bulkowski's thoughts back in feb 2008 are interesting: thepatternsite.com/Blog-Feb08.html Sticking with my Puts, and my long VXX for now. Yes, I do think a 25% corrections is in play (or more this time) . Greeks are a proud people, and I do think they will do what is best for Greece, and not worry all that much what their agressive demands do to the Eurozone community or to the world markets. They are desparate, they almost have no choice, the rubber band is stretched as far as the central banks can stretch it, deflation is a real, big, concern. Let's see what happens, hey no risk, no reward. I recommend at least as a hedge some downside action, as insurance here. The central banks are out of known rabbits, but perhaps something no one has considered will come out of that hat next. And the next blood red moon is April 4th, Passover, and Israel is under so much pressure right now, anything can happen over there. So much world event volatility, has to show up as volatility in the marketst too, and it is. IMO.
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