CosmicDust

SPY - is it topping yet?

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
spy
145 10 6
spy
RSI is already broken, and now waiting for the VIX             piece... Not a good time to be brave!
Note that last time stocks rose to new highs and then formed a negative divergence with RSI
Reply
Could well have topped, judging by the price action over the last couple of weeks and the recent decline. If correct it could be confirmed soon with longer term rising trendline support being breach to the downside. I posted my chart some time ago which would agree with yours. Great job.
SP500 Bearish Outlook - Close to forming Generational Top
+1 Reply
2use DanV
Now we have 2 great charts on this...doom and gloom for 10 years though?
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Well it is not necessarily intended to be Doom & Gloom. We are traders and it is price action we analyse and trade. Many might have been saying Doom & Gloom for 10 years but clearly have been premature or rather this has been very confusing market for all of us. Anyway, hope you benefit from it.
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2use DanV
We all do, but would be quite a pity for a 10 year move of such :) better be out sooner rather than later in any case - thanx for the charts !
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Thanks for your comments. You may be right, though I am not one of them. In fact as far back as Sept 2012 I have a chart where I expected 16k-17k as potential topping zone for Dow for example. Timing wise it was late 2013-early 2104. So timing wise taken little longer than originally anticipated, but still within the ball park zone. Most important thing going forward is how you will take advantage of the developing move and indeed which direction. That I suppose will depend on which way we are positioned and how how the price action will develop in reality. http://www.screencast.com/t/oG9OjDiRUx
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2use DanV
I have that chart more than once from many sources :) noone can predict the future , one cant tell me what happens tomorrow even - we suppose, expect. And expectations change with each new bar - one has to keep himself updated, hence he won't be the one left *holding the bag*
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Fair enough. Chart from Sept 2012 not exactly based on price action of today. But I understand. No one can predict, we all act with hindsight I guess. Hope it works for you.
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Thanks for comments guys, and great chart Dan! I think it is fair to say it is prudent to be cautious right now, and also there is always a bull market somewhere! (as money never sleeps - forgot who said that). I am watching GDX. It is sitting at 6 years low, distressed most, and it has to bottom out some time down the road. As always, patience will be rewarded. Good luck guys!
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2use CosmicDust
Money is taken from the former to make another one somewhere else :) it has to be invested somewhere indeed ;)
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