SPY: First week of Spril

Steversteves Updated   
Hey everyone,

I'll make it quick because I haven't been paying attention to SPY and don't track it much anymore. So I'll just give you the cliff notes.

Gap up is the expectation which seems confirmed looking at ES. If ES can hold this level overnight it seems like we are in good shape.

523.21 ish is the reference target. Ideally we gap above that and then that would be the immediate target.
Inversely, if we open below it, then its up to that target.

Daily Heikin Ashi shows a potential move to 518.
ARIMA agrees that 518 is a likely target this week.
So watch for some potential downside.

Otherwise, slow and painful chop that manages to snag ATHs in the most uneventful way possible, all the way up to the high targets posted on the chart. Your give away there will be a hold of the threshold range. If we hold it, then its up. But if we break it then I would be watching that 518 like a hawk!

Safe trades everyone!
We opened above the reference target and then sold down to it:

So right now the outlook is neutral. I would watch the threshold range and see which way it breaks.
We have a new high prob on the 3 month levels (new 3 month levels, yay!) its at 530.
I haven't checked the one on SPX yet.
I may do a video post later to go over the new levels for this quarter.

Stay tuned!
LOL I realized I spelled April and Spril.
First week of Spril. Sounds catchy though!
Hey everyone,
Trying to get back in the groove of posting on Tradingview more frequently.

Going into tomorrow, the probability remains bearish on SPY intra-day.
We have Powell speaking so who knows.
But it is a hard bearish assessment, and "hard bearish assessments" tend to come to fruition, so just keep it in mind.

We also closed in bearish territory. Both ES1! and SPY closed below thresholds on the week. While SPY did snag PL1, we could see a bit lower move (that 518). But maybe not. Sentiment remains generally optimistic in the market. The selling isn't to frenzied , just controlled. So we'll see.

If we break below PL1 (521.28), then I would be looking for 518 ish.
If we reclaim the bearish condition and hold (522.32), I would be looking for PH1 ah 525.

The longterm trend is up, we do have that 530s high prob on the 3 month (I will do a video going over quarterly levels but maybe not till the end of the week).

And that is my update for now!

Safe trades!

See... 518.
I knew it was coming.
I could absolutely sense it.
I posted my SPY update with NVDA last evening, sorry about that should have put it here.
But yeah, bullish.
I am long on it till the 530s.

Safe trades!
Hey my little SPY obsessed Munchkins, :p,

Probably final upate on this and NVDA for the week. I will attempt to do a video analysis of the quarterly levels for the indicies and NVDA tomorrow, latest Friday.

Probability for tomorrow is bullish! Though I would exercise caution with a gap up.
No clear chart setup from a short or long perspective based on how we closed and post market activity, so I don't like that. But the prob assessments have been pretty solid this week.

We have reclaimed the 3 month bearish threshold but still trailing below the monthly bear threshold.
Real possibility this pulls back to the monthly low targets, starting at 511, if we cannot reclaim the monthly bearish threshold at 520 and hold it.

Longer term outlook is generally bullish, with the 3 month high prob sitting at 532 (as I have said before), but this is day 3 of 3 months, so lots can happen between then and now haha.

All in all, I would be looking at more of a long bias tomorrow, will some short opportunities if timed correctly. We really need to see SPY reclaim and hold 520 into end of week to solidfy the bullish thesis, else we are in for some problems.

I am long on SPY, targetting the high prob at 532. However, if we reject the bearish monthly threshold again at 520, I will get out.

If you want to swing long an are not in yet, I would wait to see 520 held.
If you are contemplating any position, short with a 520 rejection, long with a 520 hold, ideally at 521. Its still like an 11 point move from 521 to 532, there is no need to rush your positions. Be patient!

Safe trades everyone and leave your questions below!
That 511 sure became a reality quicker than I imagined,,....

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