Definetely took some risk on early wednesday with some high theta 7/15 SPY puts before close. Purchased just out of the money at 298. They sunk.20 cents+ into close and with the holiday Thursday, I really thought it was 50/50 at best whether or not I was going to get pummeled at open Friday. It was a risk I was willing to take. While the dip didn't last, it was long enough to get out with 1-1.20 /contract profit. I only planned on a 2:1 risk/reward because of the risk and theta. Probably should have opted for farther out expirations and given myself time to be right. I liked this trade for a few reasons:
1) The SPY rally wasn't driven off anything more than news and the expectation priced in for rate cuts from the FED in late July
2) Last week was impressive. And it may not be over. But the idea that an increased "probability" and speculation on what FED does 25 days from now, a gentlemen's agreement (at best) in Osaka @ the G20, and how freaked out markets got over 250,000 jobs being added because of how it might influence the FED: This is late bull market stuff. Mania, skepticism. It's a living breathing Warren Buffet quote. Think Ill take out some insurance on limit buys under the bid on TVIX.
Only way I buy here is if MACD/RSI's aren't piping hot, I have liquidity , and maybe even after a mild pullback. I'm staying Delta neutral. Option Spreads are looking pretty alright if volatility stays low. Keep an eye on the USD, EM, Economy reports. Have a great weekend.
// These are just opinions, journals, thoughts. Not professional advice. Trade at your own risk! //
1) The SPY rally wasn't driven off anything more than news and the expectation priced in for rate cuts from the FED in late July
2) Last week was impressive. And it may not be over. But the idea that an increased "probability" and speculation on what FED does 25 days from now, a gentlemen's agreement (at best) in Osaka @ the G20, and how freaked out markets got over 250,000 jobs being added because of how it might influence the FED: This is late bull market stuff. Mania, skepticism. It's a living breathing Warren Buffet quote. Think Ill take out some insurance on limit buys under the bid on TVIX.
Only way I buy here is if MACD/RSI's aren't piping hot, I have liquidity , and maybe even after a mild pullback. I'm staying Delta neutral. Option Spreads are looking pretty alright if volatility stays low. Keep an eye on the USD, EM, Economy reports. Have a great weekend.
// These are just opinions, journals, thoughts. Not professional advice. Trade at your own risk! //