The SPY has been trending upwards since the beginning of time.
I believe the time has come for this bubble to burst mainly because of Elliot Wave Theory that coincides with the catastrophic macro economic environment.
In the weekly chart I can see 5 impulsive waves that met their bullish targets.
Since then, monthly chart has lost momentum, which means every "pump" is a shorting opportunity.
This weekly correction could be manifested as big ABC or ABCDE (red in the chart).
Currently SPY is developing wave (B) to the upside (red in the chart) and is at resistance levels.
Wave (A) was a clear ABC on the weekly chart which each subdivides into their respective corrections.
Wave (B) has completed waves AB and is developing C.
Weekly Indicator analysis
The Elliot Wave Indicator has been distributing for the past 35 days.
The Elliot Wave Number has been distributing for the past 21 days.
SRSI entering in overbought territory.
Daily Indicator analysis
The Elliot Wave Indicator has been distributing for the past 54 days.
The Elliot Wave Number has been distributing for the past 47 days.
SRSI has been > 50 the past 55 days.
Bearish Divergence on MACD
Daily 200MA is at 402
3Day 200MA is at 399
Weekly Resistances are 402 - 411 - 417
Daily Resistances are 402 - 411 -
Targets to the downside
Weekly 200MA trending upwards 354
Fibonacci extension 1 level at 315
Fibonacci extensions 1.382-1.618 at 245-272
Fibonacci extensions 1.382-1.618 from wave 3-4 at 222-248 (big support and bottom of bear market)
To sum it up.
Looks bearish on macro scale and daily charts presenting bearish divergences.
SPY could still trend upwards and go to the resistances stated above and accumulate more bearish divergences.
My bias will change if weekly chart presents bullish divergence on the Elliot Wave Indicator (higher low in price with accumulation).
I believe the time has come for this bubble to burst mainly because of Elliot Wave Theory that coincides with the catastrophic macro economic environment.
In the weekly chart I can see 5 impulsive waves that met their bullish targets.
Since then, monthly chart has lost momentum, which means every "pump" is a shorting opportunity.
This weekly correction could be manifested as big ABC or ABCDE (red in the chart).
Currently SPY is developing wave (B) to the upside (red in the chart) and is at resistance levels.
Wave (A) was a clear ABC on the weekly chart which each subdivides into their respective corrections.
Wave (B) has completed waves AB and is developing C.
Weekly Indicator analysis
The Elliot Wave Indicator has been distributing for the past 35 days.
The Elliot Wave Number has been distributing for the past 21 days.
SRSI entering in overbought territory.
Daily Indicator analysis
The Elliot Wave Indicator has been distributing for the past 54 days.
The Elliot Wave Number has been distributing for the past 47 days.
SRSI has been > 50 the past 55 days.
Bearish Divergence on MACD
Daily 200MA is at 402
3Day 200MA is at 399
Weekly Resistances are 402 - 411 - 417
Daily Resistances are 402 - 411 -
Targets to the downside
Weekly 200MA trending upwards 354
Fibonacci extension 1 level at 315
Fibonacci extensions 1.382-1.618 at 245-272
Fibonacci extensions 1.382-1.618 from wave 3-4 at 222-248 (big support and bottom of bear market)
To sum it up.
Looks bearish on macro scale and daily charts presenting bearish divergences.
SPY could still trend upwards and go to the resistances stated above and accumulate more bearish divergences.
My bias will change if weekly chart presents bullish divergence on the Elliot Wave Indicator (higher low in price with accumulation).
