SPY: Same sitch

Steversteves Updated   
Going to write an idea but it will be brief;
Same setup as last time with a break below the next week threshold.
We also see that its rejected the wedge.
So PL1 is the immediate target and maybe a bit steeper. But maybe not. It does seem to really want to break out of this wedge so it may go running at it again.

Look for bounce/ support at PL1 if we get there and if it bounces, I would get long. Trail at the wedge and hope that this time it makes it.
Else we tank to the low targets and bottom of the wedge. In which case, I would be short until the low range in the chart.

That's it, its pretty straight forward really. It will chop and what not but its just a given now.

Some other notes, some major earnings are being released this upcoming week, if you are interested in following those, the ones of note are:

1. BRK.B (Berkshire Hathaway). Currently its at an ATH and vastly over-extended but this is a big one to follow earnings with.


3. Hilton (HGV)

4. AMC

5. Macy's (M)

As well, an interresting short setup is BAX. It showed up on my abnormal option activity radar with a huge short interest. I checked ou the chart and I can see what people are seeing:

Its on my radar.

Last note, since I get so many questions about it, SMCI is poised to break 1005 in the coming days.

Those are my thoughts, safe trades and have a great week!
Futures (ES1!) has reclaimed the threshold but SPY has not and in fact did a rejection premarket:

Watch that level. If we break back over it, wait for it to hold and move up, then probably its a long.
But don't get long immediately if it does an initial break. It likes to do that bouncing around right on these thresholds to get everyone in all directions before just failing hahaha.
Its been a bit of a chellnging week.
I am having a hard time with it personally.
SPY is refusing to snag PL1 and that is actually generally a bullish indication.
We are also forming a bull flag with Heikin ashi continuation on the daily.

Tomorrow we should see a decisive move, one way or the other. Either the bull flag breaks down and we move to the bototm of the wedge, I expect it would be swift.
Or we break up and move to our annual high targets at 510/513 (for PH1 on the year).
Moving to the annual high targets this soon into the year would be bold of SPY but not unheard of. IF you remember my annual post, when that happens we tend to see bullishy choppy years.
That said, with a slew of fundamental catalyst that could derail the bullish thesis if they come to fruition (Recession and rate hikes being among the top ones), we may see a new type of year develop where we snag the high targets first and then tank.
Again this is not new for SPY, it has happened in previous years where a similar situation happened (negative catalyst happened mid year).

Let's see what happens tomorrow and I will have more of an outlook to give.
We will snag those annual highs at some point in the future, whether it be tomorrow or whether it be in 5 months, I can't say for sure, but they will be snagged!
We snagged 513 as I expected with the bull flag setup.
Now we should pullback. After hours SPY fell back into the new monthly threshold with the bottom being 505.

Its not "topped" yet but it is in pullback territory.
Immediate play is if it fails to breakout of the monthly threshold again, short back down to 508.

Will look more at it over the weekend.

Have a great weekend everyone!

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