AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
So up until this AM price action was in a position to break out and above the clouds. Unfortunately, a confluence of factors have us rejecting that breakout. My experience with the 4-hr charts and Ichimoku clouds is that price action tends to flow from edge to edge. My current target is ~$381.70. I'm short @$385 with a $386.64 stop loss. I wouldn't recommend following me, since the market makers will be stop hunting shorts all morning, but I think this is a safe target to hold off on opening any new positions for the time being.
Comment: Here comes the express elevator down. Hang on...
Comment: They almost got me today. Guessing more than a few people flipped their longs this AM:
Comment: Nice little megaphone. Poor shorts. You've got to have conviction in your position on days like this. Yes, we're ranging, but we're also printing lower lows and generally adhering to the downtrend.
Comment: Market isn't sure if it wants to break thru ... but it's had its 5 touches... there's only one solution here:
Comment: And just like that we're back in that negative price channel going back to 8:30am.
Comment: But not without a struggle...
Comment: Pop Quiz: Will we bounce at $383?
Comment: Closed by shorts on the double--bottom for the day after it was apparent that prices weren't going to be marked down further today. Will consider reopening short position tomorrow. However, looking at the session volume, the bid/ask is getting pretty tight. We may break up from here. But I wouldn't expect anything until Powell speaks. I'm in cash until then.
Comment: END OF POST
Comment: I've hit my quota for the week. Taking off the rest of the week. Happy trading all!
Comment: And as it always happens, you go to lunch and see the market went on ahead without you but according to your plans. haha Hope this post was able to help a few traders out with holding onto their short position or considering closing their long position. Lows will be tested tomorrow, look for V-shape bounce with lots of spring on a double-bottom divergence. I'll be at the beach.
**Disclaimer, this is only for entertainment and education purposes and doesn't serve by any means as a buy or sell recommendation.
Personally I hold both long term long positions and occasionally short term short position, for disclosure purpose.**

Comments

Thank You for the chart and explanations! Newbies like me greatly appreciate your detail and explanations. :)
100 coins
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@jen41613, TY! You're very welcome. :)
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@jen41613, If you really want to get a leg up on trading, visit Traderstewie's (he's on Twitter too) blog and read every post he's published from 2007 to the present. He's a swing trader that has a very firm grasp of charts and he's great about sharing details in his blog. If you soak it up, you'll be an excellent trader in short time. It's totally free just scroll to the bottom of of his blog to access his older stuff. He has a subscription service too but its not necessary. Cheers! http://theimpatienttrader.blogspot.com/
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The bond action is wild. If yields are rising because the economy is just doing so dang good, why did the yields spike after bad payroll numbers from ADP?
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SLOPolarBear PreferredStonk
+1 Reply
PreferredStonk SLOPolarBear
@SLOPolarBear, Exactly. The narrative isn't solid. The reaction today started with the European Central Bank saying they weren't worried about rising yields: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-03/ecb-said-to-see-no-need-for-drastic-action-to-curb-bond-yields

Easy for them to say. Theirs are all plainly in the negatives, lol.

As the article notes, the US bond market is the main trouble spot, and it'll be interesting to see what the FED says today and tomorrow. Because there's no way they're letting the 10y yield touch 2% this year. They have another 10 year auction next week to keep an eye on. If bonds continue at this rate they'll almost certainly institute yield curve control and expand their buying program.

Not good to see US bonds react so vigorously to news from the EU banks.
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SLOPolarBear PreferredStonk
@PreferredStonk, There are so many macro factors that show up in the headlines. I personally try to focus on 3 things: volatility, price action, and volume analysis. I operate within that narrow spectrum of knowledge and it prevents me from hesitating when I take trades. All worth studying though!
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Do you think we ll reverse back up in the next couple of days?
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SLOPolarBear waszkien1
@waszkien1, More likely we explore lower lows first.
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SLOPolarBear waszkien1
@waszkien1, You'll know the lows are in because the price action will spring... it will leave very little opportunity for anyone to buy it. That's why it's the low. We're retracing levels that the market gapped thru on its way to ATH's. So this isn't a signal of a bear market ensuing. More of a larger consolidation. That's my take at least.
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