We had a whole month of decreasing unemployment benefits. We had a small increase in wages and hours worked. We had good preliminary employment numbers. And we have tons of job openings. Plus several states have begun moving their minimum wages up (by 2024). And the unemployment percent went up.
And yet the government job numbers sucked.
Everyone's going to blame democrats for free money for a bit but com'on, get smart. I usually draw and commentate without calling long or short. People are optimistic. But rather than hire someone who's been out of work for months, many companies instead are poaching talent from one another. The pool of potential hires is growing but when one person is hired, they leave another spot open elsewhere. We are way further down the inflation hole than originally thought. Just like in housing, people are bidding up employees from an ever shrinking talent pool. That's one of the last signs of an overheated economy. When wages are going up without any net increase in productivity. We have only a couple of months before the numbers are adjusted and we see the true employment picture. The bond traders are smart. The stock market is crowded with retail traders who've only been playing for 6 months. Maybe we'll get a couple of overseas developing market shocks but by the end, we'll see inflation numbers closer to 5% and the Fed slamming the brakes.
Go to your local bank. Check out your super market. If your pipes constantly break, look closely at your plumber. You'll see a lot of new faces. And most of their stories will start with, 'I just started here, transferred from...'
And yet the government job numbers sucked.
Everyone's going to blame democrats for free money for a bit but com'on, get smart. I usually draw and commentate without calling long or short. People are optimistic. But rather than hire someone who's been out of work for months, many companies instead are poaching talent from one another. The pool of potential hires is growing but when one person is hired, they leave another spot open elsewhere. We are way further down the inflation hole than originally thought. Just like in housing, people are bidding up employees from an ever shrinking talent pool. That's one of the last signs of an overheated economy. When wages are going up without any net increase in productivity. We have only a couple of months before the numbers are adjusted and we see the true employment picture. The bond traders are smart. The stock market is crowded with retail traders who've only been playing for 6 months. Maybe we'll get a couple of overseas developing market shocks but by the end, we'll see inflation numbers closer to 5% and the Fed slamming the brakes.
Go to your local bank. Check out your super market. If your pipes constantly break, look closely at your plumber. You'll see a lot of new faces. And most of their stories will start with, 'I just started here, transferred from...'
I usually try not to tell you what to do -- too crowded there. I'll point out what price points/trends/patterns the pros are looking at and let you interpret what that means for your portfolio.
just to update my thoughts, I think we'll bounce around $408. People are still rotating, trying to find value pockets. We may even end up forgetting about inflation until October or so. And then it'll mostly be the earnings misses that get us most.