Daniel.B

Potential Pullback coming

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
298 1 8
Well this is just a simple tech analysis chart. Not a trade suggestion or log.

I still believe that this market can make new highs if not this year then the next. Throughout my experience, short sellers of a general bull trend usually tend to get squeezed out of trades in spectacular fashion and their rejoice is usually short lived. So even though mainstream media continues to question the market, I just ignore it and make my own views based off of what I see happening. Not what they see happening, they have their own reasoning & interests at play which are vastly different than mine.

What I see is the potential of a pullback offering any swing traders the opportunity to either enter short-term short positions or to be patient to enter longer term bullish swing trades. For one we are starting to near previous support turned resistance between the 205-206 area. So I expect swing longs to start taking profits (Orders to sell to get out of long positions), and shorter term swing traders to enter short at resistance; thus providing the necessary selling power to make the market pullback. Another thing you traders will notice is that resistance is more complex than just a simple horizontal trend-line, there are multiple points of resistance colliding into the 205-206 area. Including the dynamic resistance in the form of the descending trend-line and the weekly 20 Moving Average .

Note: T.V. said the description is to long so I will post the rest in the comment section.

Cheers, hope I made sense in this post lol. And I do hope some traders found it helpful.
Daniel.B
a year ago
Description (Cont.)

For traders that have followed me for a while, you may already know that one of the most important indicators I use is volume to validate moves in the market, or to look for clues into what the market may potentially do. And I've spotted an anomaly that is actually quite common in regards to pullbacks. That being the declining bullish trading volume. Most of you already know that the high majority of retail traders buy high, sell low. This is displayed on a chart by high bull volume at the bottom of a pullback, which is then followed by candles subsequently making higher highs, but volume starts to decline once market price gets closer & closer to points of resistance. Showing that even though price is nearing a point in the market where buyers start taking profits and short sellers jump in, there is always a faction of the market that regrets not buying at the bottom so they say "ehh what the heck, let me buy this market now, the bull trend is confirmed and cannot fail; Only to have the market pullback and trigger their stops". Trader emotion in simplest form, because of greed in not wanting to miss out on profits they buy the tops, only to be squeezed out as soon as longs take profits (orders to sell in order to realize a profit) and short sellers jump into the market. And a lot will hold on to their positions until they finally capitulate realizing a loss and selling at the bottom of a pullback thus creating high seller volume at support. Another factor that you need to research on the side is the role market makers play in all of this (Selling last reserves of inventory, getting ready to bid prices down in order to re-fill inventory to sell at higher prices thus making a potential higher high, and realizing a trading profit for their own discretionary accounts). I highly suggest you research the role of market makers, as it will help make sense of seeming random moves in the market. All in all this is what I see happening in regards to volume: The market makes new weekly highs but buyer volume starts declining the closer you get to resistance, meaning there is little demand to support the market at these levels so you can expect a pullback in the near future. So what do you do after take not of this? Well go down to the daily chart and start looking for the previous point of resistance that is now turned support which in this case can potentially be the Weekly 100 Moving Average at 195.00 (Which also happens to be at the area where a gap happened at the open 2 weeks ago and the market never attempted to fill / retest the gap which means that is a likely area of support that you would want to monitor and see held if your looking to buy a pullback. Another scenario is that we remain in this area of distribution and the market fills the gap and heads down to support at the 182.00-186.00 area in which you will look for long positions to enter and hold as price heads back up to test the same resistance areas again.
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