SPY: Some clarity maybe

Steversteves Premium Updated   
Hey everyone!

Hope you are all finishing the week green!

I have been particularly quiet this week because I have been working on some other stuff. Obviously this market is a nightmare and its caused me to have to re-work and re-invent some stuff. This week has predominately been taking small positions to test out this stuff and taking huge scalp positions on AMD which has just been a beast. To be fair, NVDA has too.

But in the quest of betterment, we actually have some clarity going into next week. Not only that but we have some deja vu from one of my first ideas I posted about a year ago. So some exciting stuff to get into.

First off, let's talk about what's new.

New things are:
1. DXY 99 on the weekly (which I posted an idea about which obviously worked out well)
2. VIX 99 on the weekly ANDDDDD the daily - this has given some highly, HIGHLY profitable trades this week. Small size because it was still experimental BUT very great.
3. VIX weekly range and levels
4. 2 Day Reference targets (you will know we have our weekly reference target, but this is a 2 day POC / GT thing) which I have for BA, IWM , AMD , SPY , VIX

And here are some looks at this:

SO what does this mean for next week?

Well, let's quickly get into the probabilities.
SPY is weak bullish and SPX is strong bearish .
It makes huge sense.
SPY is weak bullish to 395. 395 is our 2 day reference target for Monday. Probabilities for Monday are bullish . This means we should make a move back to this 395 range.
Our weekly reference target on SPY is 388. Which means, if we can open above this and move to 395, we have a clear shot down to 388. If we open on 388 or below it, we have a clear shot probably up to 388 and likely 395.

400s are not showing in the probs, but we have huge catalyst next week so I am not ruling it out.

In terms of FOMC, I am not going to make any comment. It's probably going to be a short but we are going to need to see where things fall. Either way, whipsaw is expected and it should actually bring us to all ranges in all directions. But, of particular interest, we need to see where the VIX 99% on the week falls, Where DXY"s falls and where the general targets fall on SPY and what has or has not been hit leading into FOMC.

But I mentioned Deja vu. And if you have followed me for a while you will remember the epic short we got from my own chart pattern invention, the bearish bird.

As a reminder:

and currently:

Very interesting developments.

Anyway, the math range for next week is in the chart. We will play it by ear. I will update this idea with the targets and developments as they come, so stay tuned!

Safe trades everyone and let me know your questions/comments below!
I did post a video idea but I was mistaken in it. I forgot about UPRO. We do have an unhit bearish UPRO target on the weekly:

Its about 389 ish on SPY. Which isn't anything overly exciting since our reference target is 388 range but it is worth noting.

Safe trades everyone!


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