SPY: Week of June 10th

Steversteves Updated   
And I'm back.
Sunburned to all h3ll. haha

For next week on SPY, its looking bearish initially. We do have a reference target at 533 so expect a retrace to this area.

Looking for 529 and ideally we break below to head to those low targets, because that will test this wedge SPY is making.

Here is the wedge from a daily perspective:

And the weekly:

Probs on SPX and NDX are particularly bearish which gives the most reliable assessments. SPY is meh. Loosy goosy essentially.

We fell below the threshold range in afterhours on Friday.
We left off with a setup that brings SPY down to 531, so potential gap down situaiton.

If its going to sell, I would like to see it sell right away and quickly to rebound back up.
If we hit those low targets you're pretty golden to long and just hold long because of this:

Key points to remember for next week:

1. Trend support rests within the lower low targets (the red box in the chart).
2. Reference target of 533 which is hit roughly 80% of the time, meaning that if we see a fast sell, we will likely see an equally fast rebound.
3. We are still midway into the wedge, its not likely we see a big breakdown here. We do have some catalysts, NVDA split (bearish), FOMC (neutral). These may be catalysts enough to bring us down to the trend support but they aren't going to likely cause a break down or out one way or the other.

Cavet: If we go up first, which is a possibility, then we look for rejection at the top of the range in the chart. Going up first doesn't make sense when you look at the math levels/predictions. Its a cleaner setup to go down first and snag the math low estimates and the trend support. But, if the market wants to shake things up (it really hasn't shaken things up in a very long time, its been pretty stable lately, but there is always a first), then we could technically go up first. This wouldn't necessarily change the bearish re-test but it would complicate the reversal point.

Overall bias remains, shocker, bullish.

Safe trades everyone!

Going up first.
With the breakout of the consolidation range the expectation is 540, which PH2 on the week and PH1 on the 3 month.

FOMC is a neutral catalyst, CPI who knows. But with the break it seems up is the correct answer to the 540 target.
Oh god, I don't think I can answer where we go next simply.
I think I will address this maybe in a supplemental idea, but for quick reference check out my post on "How How will SPY go":

We have not reached 2 standard deviations on SPX yet. Which means more up-room.

As of now, we have a bearish High prob intra-day on ES1!:

Ideally this leads to a gap down in the morning.
Honestly, not sure where and to what extent a correction could happen anymore because the market is in fullblown Euphoria.
I've never seen anything like it.
Despite being a long standing trader, the market always gives me new experiences haha. I don't think any self respecting trading can say they've seen it all.

Anyway, my thinking is we continue to by the dips up until SPX reaches that 2 SD range which as of now is in the high 5500s.

I will post another idea in the near future about annual ranges during particularly bullish years.

Safe trades everyone!
buy the dips*

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