hungry_hippo

SPY Intraday Channel

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
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It's obvious that the big boys are running a different computer algorithm, look at the trading today. Straight channel down, no panic selling or buying. Usually only happens upwards, now we're seeing it in the downward direction.

In any case, failed pennant breakout on the intraday chart, expecting a down day Monday. Market will continue to set new lows before bouncing up.
Dec 14
Comment: SPY puts have a higher premium than calls now. We know which way the market expects to move.
Dec 15
Comment: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/invest...

Record outflow of money out of the market this week. Smart money is leaving the market.
Dec 17
Comment: When the market goes down, people dump their ETFs and mutual funds on Fridays and Mondays. That being said, I expect a reversal tomorrow or Wed (Fed meeting), so I flipped all of my puts and I'm all cash now.

Might be room for one more down day before the Fed meeting though, or at least a big gap down.
Dec 19
Comment: Obviously the down channel is broken, markets are rallying. Funny thing is, I've never see the market rally 300 pts (DOW) before an expected rate hike.

People are really counting on the Feds to change market direction. I expect the rally to be very short lived, $265 gap close on SPY.
Dec 19
Comment: Ouch.
Dec 19
Comment: You would think these idiots would turn their computers off after losing so much money. They don't seem to realize that they can't pump up the market with futures with this much outflow. SPX up 9 pts already.

Almost guaranteed at this point that the market will go down on Friday. Retail investors are gonna cash out before Christmas break, dump their mutual funds and 401k. Mutual fund selloff always happen on Fridays and Mondays.

If the market goes up tomorrow, I'm buying puts at the end of the day. Probably XRT puts since I expect NKE earnings to tank retail.
Dec 20
Comment: SPY appears to have hit the lower trendline on the intraday charts. Looks like we're bouncing up.

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