On the 30 minute chart it is clear that buying activity that took place around the 15th pushed prices back over 200. Now that we are retesting the prior swing low, buyers may be attracted to such a level for one more attempt at the high. The broader trend has been for sometime which provides a greater chance we push the high but I prefer to take profits at a more conservative and probable target.
In order to trigger a long I need to see some form of validation at current price levels. This can also come in the form of price structure as well. If price pushes below 197.00 with conviction and closes below this area, then the long idea is cancelled. This is also a good reference point for a stop.
If price validates and retraces, I would be looking for a retest of 199.30 area for an exit and if feeling more aggressive into the low 200's. At current levels, reward to risk is very attractive.
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