SPY weekly - chance of Q4 rebound - 9/30/2015

RSI on support, price in a triangle and is consolidating. A breakout can bring it to $203 level in Q4 (about 5% gain). Of course it can break down too (blue line). Given the rollover of the 40 week moving average, any rally now should be treated as a counter trend rally, that is the main trend is now down.
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