Way back in January, I posted a bullish (or let's say non-bearish) forecast in "Is it a top?", which I have linked below. It's now time to revisit the same chart and see where we stand. The concept was almost entirely based on weekly momentum which had made a new high. I forecasted that momentum needed to retreat to lows or near lows in order to setup for a divergence in making the ultimate longer term top, which you can see it has done. Now we have one of the two ingredients necessary for weekly momentum divergence. The next will be new weekly price highs. Shorter term, looking at the daily chart, I think we've gone too far, too fast. A few days ago, I posted that I was looking for a retrace to the 204 area (linked below), and that continues to be my bias. So while I am indicating a long bias overall, I'd like to caution that the week ahead could be a bearish week. Those who have been looking to get into the recent uptrend which has had very little in the way of pullbacks, might get a chance soon. If you're not in already, and price continues higher instead of retracing then just enjoy the show, because it's too risky to get in here.
In particular, you should spend no time at all thinking about those rosy scenarios in which the market goes your way, since in those situations, there's nothing more for you to do. - William Eckhardt
