Is it a top? I doubt it

178 0 1
My analysis is pretty much 3 fold here. 1. The weekly chart on the left is showing momentum confirming the high, which indicates a bias toward another high. I like to see momentum divergence at tops. The October low is a significant level to watch if broken, however. 2. The daily chart on the right at the moment appears like 2 ABC patterns, so a corrective pattern could be completing, but that's not my short term bias. With price poking around near the mid December levels, my bias would be to take that 198 prior low level out where there are probably some technical stops sitting, before reversing. My guess is a reach to 194-196, or just enough to make some of the weak stops panic. 3. With momentum coming off a weekly extreme, the market does need to simmer down. Additionally, to setup for the expected divergence, momentum needs to come down enough that it won't be able to make the new high next time prices does. What makes the most sense to me is a period of sideways after reaching the a near term low in the coming week or two. The sideways market action will bring that weekly momentum down, sort of like storing potential energy to spring up for another advance. People get the most excited when they start reading financial news about "market volatility" meaning a correction, or about new highs, but the fact is the market is usually not trending, so be ready for some consolidation.
I have other reasons for thinking this isn't the start of a major correction, but I want to keep this post purely based on chart.

EN English
EN English (UK)
EN English (IN)
DE Deutsch
FR Français
ES Español
IT Italiano
PL Polski
TR Türkçe
RU Русский
PT Português
ID Bahasa Indonesia
MS Bahasa Melayu
TH ภาษาไทย
VI Tiếng Việt
JA 日本語
KO 한국어
ZH 简体中文
ZH 繁體中文
Home Stock Screener Forex Signal Finder Cryptocurrency Signal Finder Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators Website & Broker Solutions Widgets Stock Charting Library Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing My Support Tickets Contact Support Ideas Published Followers Following Private Messages Chat Sign Out