Possible upside break out of consolidation underway

Over two weeks ago, I posted "Is it a top? I doubt it" with the notion that the market might still make another high. To me the chart still indicates higher. I've spent some time tonight looking through other people's technical analysis posted here, and I would say I'm definitely in the minority. The pattern in progress so far in 2015 is looking like a triangle consolidation pattern to me, and while the consensus seems to be a break down from here, I find that very unlikely. Triangles coming off a high like this tend to be a pause in the trend, rather than a reversal pattern.

I'm posting once again a neutral bias here since I'm not confident enough in new highs to be totally dogmatic. I'd say this is a good place to start positioning for a downturn or simply doing nothing while the market chops around.

I will change my view to bearish in the event the 182 level is threatened, indicating a higher degree pattern likely will be unfolding.

In particular, you should spend no time at all thinking about those rosy scenarios in which the market goes your way, since in those situations, there's nothing more for you to do. - William Eckhardt

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