claydoctor
Short

SPX500 777, 666, now 555 ????

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
329 8 6
It is the fool that says THIS CANNOT HAPPEN. The wise man said, a fool and his money are soon parted. Imagine the volume and velocity of the EXODUS if this even thinks of happening. Imagine the expression when your wallet is picked, and the moment you reach for it and it is gone. Numbers, what do they mean? Are they a coincidence, or do they represent who we are? Six (6) times the markets tried to correct the bull . 6 is the number of man, and 666 is the closest you can get to 7 without being 7. Why did we end on 666 the last time? Why not 641, or any other number. It took God 6 days to create the universe. On the 7th day God rested.

The 2nd correction took 20% less time than the first one. We did not have as much computer trading then. Auto trades have grown exponentually since the last correction. If/When this happens, they will hit the STOP TRADING protection switch. You won't be able to get your sell order in, much less executed. Note the spike down in number 5 this time. Note the angle of the volume .

So why would I post a chart like this? Not for my sake, but for yours. The point is, if you are not hedged with profits from this bull run, do it now. It is house money anyway. Many of you are, as am I. It is just smart trading. But here's a thought, can we all hedge at the same time? Mmmm, never thought of they, eh? What will that do to the payout systems. Will we get I O U's? Maybe only the first out will get paid? What will that thought do to the trigger fingers on the sell buttons? Are your algorythm sell orders in place? Anything can happen.

Here's a thought, i.e.,... lets suppose this Yemen thing expands, and someone bombs a Saudi oil             field or something like that, and oil             supply does stop flowing big time quickly FOR WHATEVER REASON. Keep in mind this is an oil             war, and lots of people with a lot of money in oil             have lost a lot of money and they are not very happy about it. USA Inflation , minus oil             , is already at 2% (The Fed's key number) . If oil             spikes overnight to say 80, and it could, and it doubles or triples inflation , what does the FED do then? THEY RAISE RATES OF COURSE, AND POSSIBLY AT AN EMERGENCY MEETING! Markets will really not like that panic decision. Wages will pop, employment may actually rise, when the US fracking fields start up again. Dollar collapses. Dry Ships (DRYS) goes 10X in a week. etc., etc.

I am NOT SAYING THIS WILL HAPPEN BY ANY MEANS, just saying something like this could, with all the tensions building. Hedging just makes sense. Do your own homework. Careful trading all. As always, IMO.

All comments welcome.
claydoctor
2 years ago
Just realized there were also 7 steps to the first correction.
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vitka.frankovic
2 years ago
What does 555 stand for ?
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claydoctor vitka.frankovic
2 years ago
Projected Pivot low of the S&P 500.
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vitka.frankovic claydoctor
2 years ago
yes I see that, I just thought it has some numerological meaning as well
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claydoctor vitka.frankovic
2 years ago
It is merely the next in the Sequence, if you give meaning to sequences of numerical values in trading. Nothing more.
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vitka.frankovic claydoctor
2 years ago
OK
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claydoctor
2 years ago
and... why did Warren Buffett buy Kraft Foods, and they just bought Heinz foods? Consumer staples companies? Why did his right hand man say "soon we will all have to learn to do more with less". They know what is coming. Buffett, the ultimate long term bull is setting up his investments for the long term bear.
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claydoctor claydoctor
2 years ago
There are fundamentals that can make this happen, and any ONE of them could start it. Dollar collapse, Euro spiking up, oil incident to cause it to spike kicking inflation in and market crash with immediate emergency rate hike (which will bankrupt social security with the increase payout this would trigger-leading to US bond failures, credit rating being lowered, and a government lack of funding shut down because of the debt downgrade - can't borrow any more money from anyone - oh wait, maybe the IMF because the US is too big to fail- don't think that can't happen either) , Eurozone failure, Greek, Italy, Spain debt cantageon, BOJ Yen devalue out of control event, Oil industry bank failure, nations debt swap initiated, nations credit degrade, student loan bankruptcy, with all the currency debasing and debt accumulation and money printing and all this without any real economic sustainability and velocity being created (no jobs folks, no jobs, don't believe that employment number it is very false - I don't mind them lying about it as long as it all works out in the end - but it isn't and it won't) natural disaster of some kind like solar flare taking down the electric grid, etc. With this world economy so fragile, and so hopeful without real strength and support, we need inflation, but AT JUST THE RIGHT AMOUNT, where too little will spin us into a deflation we have no answers for, and too much into a spin that could get out of control and spike like we have never seen, and if it does go above that level we want, we raise rates ever so slightly as to not upset the markets... Are you kidding me? We have trusted the FED way, way too much here, like they will always keep these markets calm and prospering no matter what. When has a central bank ever had that much control. Yes, they did a good job lately, past few years, but under special circumstances. On the monthly, this market, the world market, is so overbought it is isn't even funny. I think this chart is actually conservative. The odds, although they are low, are much higher than even I would have thought for this market to go down 25% points in a couple days. Think about it. Stop listening and look for yourself. Here's the deal. If we react to whatever trigger causes the EVENT, with conventional means, something we have tried before, it will not work, it won't stop it. But, I also believe they have in place unconventional options that they have planned for. They might be the US govt, the IMF, world banks, G20, etc. Don't think they have not considered this chart, they have. Why would the US govt have all these private lunches and invite only seminars with the power people on wall street on how to raise rates without upsetting the markets. They are asking questions, not giving answers at these functions. This is uncharted lands. They really don't know what to do, where they have known what to do for 6 years now. I am not being chicken little saying the sky is falling. The sky is factually breaking apart, but the media has done a good job of convincing us to believe it is not. So the power brokers are going along with the little lie as long as they can profit from it. But the illusion, the GREAT DECEPTION will run out of magic soon. When, don't know exactly, but the monthly is a long term chart, and long term this does not end well. IMO.
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