Scribbles of a Rounding Top SPY

74 2 6
For fun, I decided to draw in -- scribble -- some rounding top and rounding bottom formations in the SPY             over the last few market cycles. The reason why I give any credibility at all to the pattern formations is that it provides the psychological sentiment of the market -- that the bullish euphoria is coming to an end, that the bullish strength is weakening. I feel that the symmetry of the red parabolas provide the resistance and support areas for the price action.

If this price moves like the past, expect a few months of red to go down to around 175-180 before moving sideways to touch the end of the parabola. Afterwards, like the past (specifically 2000), expect massive collapses.
a year ago
You are not alone. I had this idea since early or at least the middle of October 2015 and decided to post it last week before the Paris attack sadly happened. After publishing my idea I came by incidence via Twitter across a blog post from early November with the same idea:

[DISCUSSION] What is causing the big stock market crash of 2016?

But if the market actually rallies through this very bearish scenario that would be super-bullish. That would require a lot of new sudden and sustaining strength in the market though, which appears unlikely given that overall earnings in the US are falling each quarter this year and a Fed rate hike in the past always created a downtrend in the first 3 months after each rate hike.
ChartArt ChartArt
a year ago
Usually a bull market ends when bulls are exhausted buying, that's why I still have the idea that a new yearly high can happen before the middle December meeting of the Fed. Which would be a safer longer-time-horizon short location to try than right now somewhere in indecision land.
Ideas Scripts Chart
United States
United Kingdom
Home Stock Screener Forex Screener Economic Calendar How It Works Chart Features House Rules Moderators For the WEB Widgets Stock Charting Library Priority Support Feature Request Blog & News FAQ Help & Wiki Twitter
Private Messages Chat Ideas Published Followers Following Priority Support Public Profile Profile Settings Account and Billing Sign Out