Spy

Weekly bearish engulfing..
In the last 2 years, whenever spy has a weekly bearish engulfing the following week sees a lower lower. So the question is 440 or 444?


The price has formed a falling wedge on the 15 min time frame , same thing with the QQQ.. I wouldn't be surprised if as long as 445.50 holds Monday morning we pop up to test 448.80 or 1hr 200sma.

I will definitely be updating later today with different sectors and indexes

Comment:

Dow jones Broke out of weekly Ascending triangle a few weeks ago at 34,500.
Currently the DJI is the only index still holding its 21ema at 35,000. If the Dow loses its 21ema then it's likely heading back to 34,500 breakout for a retest. That 500 point reduction will most likely mean 440 spy

Comment:

NYSE or (NYA)

Here's another argument for 440 spy.

Weekly bearish engulfing on a rejection of .236 fib.

Most likely a pullback to test 15,800 fib level

Comment:

IXIC(Nasdaq)

Closed Friday on supporting Fib.
Things only get nasty below
13,850.. showing a double to 13,630

When you place trendlines on it, the Double top picture looks like a trap, and this could be at the bottom of a channel.
I wouldn't short tech unless IXIC broke 13,850 just to be safe.

Comment:

Vix
Daily chart.

Obivous double bottom here which I think will takes this towards 20 or 200sma at some point in the week.

1.Closed outside its Bollingerband
2. Approaching Overbought territory on CCI

Looking for dump and reversal at 200sma

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Hypothetical bigger picture...
We would correct to 430 to form a head then bounce back 445-450 before flushing in Sept. Market notoriously corrects In Sept

Setup would form a weekly Cup and Handle
For a late fall and winter rally.

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Looking to see one minor pullback here on The dollar DXY before a broadening wedge breakout sometime this week

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Vix 30min... flagging here
Either we breakout and head to 18.00
Or we break 16 .00 and market pops higher

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Spy 15min
Ascending triangle pressure cooking

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Es daily chart...😅
Top notch fawkery

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The 1hour MFI is oversold on The ES , in addition Aapl has dumped 2 days outside its Bbands. High chance they buy this up at some point.
I'm leaning toward XLF being the most bearish today

Spy closes resistance is 1hour 200sma at 448.30

Comment:

Probably won't let up on the sell side until QQQ 368 gap close

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Dji bounced off trendline support and 21ema... may not break it before CPI and PPI. Tech is lagging but cyclicals have bounced

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NQ sitting directly above its 50sma... I'd be very surprised if they gave this up before CPI..

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Spy 30 min chart wedge building here . At some point we'll tag 450 again this week...

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Es 2 hour chart..

Not expecting a breakout unless CPI beats, otherwise more range trade tomorrow
Es 2 hour chart..

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13,873
Nasdaq ixic resistance
.. I'm always suspicious 9f the v shape recoveries...

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Nq 4hour chart.... Double top shaping up to be a major falling wedge... let's see what happens

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Only stocks getting bullish play are
Energy , value , and some blue-chip.

Real defensive moves today.. probably a low volume day .. get in and out ..

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Dow jones hourly chart..
Approaching resistance here

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Vix testing support here at 15.40

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That Dow (Dji)
Is testing the 21ema twice now..
3rd time if it happens usually leads to a break .

QQQ close gap at 368...

Now we see what CPI does tomorrow

Comment:

Nasty flush.. Vix protected trendline.. if things go bad tomorrow we should Pop to 20.00 then capitulate..

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Vix needs to break that 14.50 for market to finish gap close higher

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Spy 1hour chart..
The resistance

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Tighten stop on my calls..
Let's see what happens

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It's breaking down, slowly, but it's breaking down

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Vix 1hour chart... back over 16.00 and things get really nasty..

Between 14.50 and 16.00
The market chops

Qqq slapped down on its 21ema..

Comment:

Spy and qqq bounced from the Wedge Retest...

Comment:

Qqq wants 364 to complete double top.. it's not getting any traction, just a TA bounce from oversold yesterday. Momentum still bearish

Comment:

5 straight sessions the DJI (Dow jones) has tested its 21ema..

Price has formed a pennant between resistance and 21ema..

We will see a break up or down in the next 2 sessions

Comment:

Nasty volume on QQQ. Looks like a close beneath the 50sma..
364 maybe up for tomorrow, even if they gap it up

Comment:

VIX daily...
As long as it holds above 50sma, the market has no chance.. Still waiting for that big pop to 20 which would push spy down to 440-442.... after that I'm a buyer into Sept.

Comment:

Qqq hit 364 target over resistance is 50sma.

Energy , Financials and Health balancing the losses, so unless they give up gains spy may not close the gap at 442 today

Comment:

Also worth noting is IWM

Bounce near 50sma and trend support

Comment:

Rock and a hard place now for IXIC (Nasdaq).

But if 13,600 holds , I expect a bounce back to 13,890 minimum