CosmicDust

SPY monthly - meaningful breakdown - 8/20/2015

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500
spy
160 8 3
spy
If August closes book like this, a meaningful correction may finally arrive.

right now its still up in the air for me. Price has to take out the OCT 14 swing lows for a good solid trend change.
technically we should retrace 50% of this down move and retest prior support
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Both 2000 and 2007 ended up with a huge crisis (dotcom and housing bubble)

what will drive SPX down this time? Honestly I don't see too much risk to US economy right now
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CosmicDust Killy_Mel
It can dive, it can rise, we do not know. What can drive it down? It can be driven down by something we do not know at the moment it is down.
+1 Reply
Killy_Mel CosmicDust
phylosophic approach to markers, I must say))
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CosmicDust Killy_Mel
Sort of. But the truth is every transaction we make is a bet, there is no SURE thing, and prediction is futile.
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Killy_Mel CosmicDust
however these bets are driving the market en masse... so we should think, what will drive the bets ( =people )
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CosmicDust Killy_Mel
Well, IMHO, we should NOT think, we should be mechanical when trading or investing. Thinking does not help at all. Mechanical means if these conditions happen do this; if those conditions happen, do that, etc...
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Killy_Mel CosmicDust
on short term scale, I would agree... on very short term I agree even more (with all the HFT traders/programmers)

but on long term - we have to think - and this is a long term chart=)

,,,

also - in order to build the algorithm - we have to think and be creative. and when using other's algorithms we have to understand WHY we are doing what we are doing...

so unfortunately, thinking is mandatory=)
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