Steversteves

Uptrend Confirmed... I guess

AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST
I guess I am still too short biased on SPY . In running the numbers in preparation for today, my sentiment calculations were bullish . Not even neutral, just super bullish , which is fine. But then it said we wouldn't touch or come close to 399. I was incredibly confused because we closed at 400.30 ish yesterday. SO like, 399 was literally less than 1 point away. I re-ran the numbers and it kept saying the same thing. Gave up and went to bed.

For whatever reason I didn't put 2 and 2 together here that that means a gap up, lol. Had I been long biased, I would have been like "oh sick! Gap up!" and immediately recognized it. See? Lesson here is your biases will destroy you trading haha. Be careful!

Anyway, recap, we are indeed in an uptrend. Not an uptrend that I really like. Its kind of sickly looking with gaps everywhere and quite disjointed:

It just seems unstable in general. But it is what it is I guess. I can't deny that this has committed, short term, to an uptrend:


That said, its nothing I would want to swing long. Just because it is very sickly looking and unstable looking. But it is in an uptrend none-the-less.

Our major technical resistance levels are at 415 ish and 430 ish (see below in green):



430 would bring it to the peaks of that previous triple top we had and would be a fairly aggressive move, imo.
I think realistically this week, should we continue in this uptrend, I would expect trouble to start around 415.

Looking at the daily chart , the ideal setup that would 100% make me feel comfortable swinging long is if this were to happen:


But again, as with most things in life I never get what I want. So I think I am going to have to live with SPY as it is here. But I can always hope.

Expectations for Tomorrow

Sentiment:

So, its too early to do sentiment calculations because futures remains closed. But if I make an assumption that we see futures open roughly in the area in closed at and continue its consolidation per ush , we can expect to see us drop below 406.53 tomorrow. Overall, sentiment seems neutral in both directions, meaning some selling, some buying. If futures somehow manages to gap up like 20 or 30 points between this short trading pause, or upon opening, then it completely changes this assessment.

Breaks:
Bullish break is at 410 (nuts! right?)
Bearish break is at 405

Channel:
A break out to the downside of this ascending channel is roughly 402.
A break out to the upside is roughly above 415.

Technical Resistance Levels:

415 and then
429/430

Technical Support Level:

395

What to look for:

Bulls
- Break over 410 to confirm bullishness
- Remains within channel
- Bounce off of 405 or 406 to show strength

Bears:
- Drop and hold below 405 will confirm bearish sentiment /probability will rest in favour of bearish move continuation
- Break out of the ascending channel at around 402
- Rejection before or of 410 level
- Next strong support is 395.


My thoughts. Trade safe!
Leave your comments/questions and critiques below.


Comment: HOLY C**P!

I dismissed this as a possibility in my post but FUTURES LITERALLY did my "unless" situation!
LMAO!
So yeah, panic if you're short right now because the projections just went from neutral to SUPER bullish.

Let me revise based on this:

It thinks we will hold above 406 tomorrow. Bullish and bearish break I would keep as the same. I am not sure that we will see 415 tomorrow. The momentum has been lacking in this uptrend, BUT! It is possible if we finally see that volume come in and momentum pick up.

Either way, this is looking great for longs and bad for bears.
Be very careful though! Follow the bullish and bearish breaks if you are day trading. They will tell you what you need to know.

Our open range for tomorrow is 407 - 411, most likely open is around is listed as 409 range.
Comment: Careful today everyone,
This has already broken below the bearish break. I would consider this bearish.
We may be setting up for my wish :-),

As of right now, I consider this to be a bearish break. It has happening pre-market, but its still a break of our bearish level.

If this opens below 405 in the 404 range, we can expect to see 400 and likely back to the 300s with enough momentum.
Comment: Will likely be sitting today out on SPY but observing from a distance.

SPY again has already broken today's bearish break pre-market which was 386. However it remains quite oversold on the hourly chart via RSI. Z-score shows room for movement downward, currently sitting at -1.92 and lately it has been dropping below -2.5 on the 1 hour. I expect over extension of the RSI based on the current data. What I would like to see is us break below this red line. A break below this read line invalidates a double bottom, V shape bounce.


My thoughts. No advice today except that I would still treat this as a bearish break and I would anticipate to see bearish continuation.

Best to avoid SPY though in all honesty today and just see what happens. That red line is what we should all be watching closely and seeing what happens from there.

Trade safe everyone!
Comment: Red line* not read hahaha
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