This week has been a tough one. Its been not great.
My P&L on the week is not great because I have had to really scale back on my position sizes. Unfortunately, this is a week where I have had to put complete faith in the probability targets. Every time I entered a position this week, with the exception of one scalp yesterday, EVERY. TIME. the stock IMMEDIATELY went against me parabolically and at first I was stopping out, but once I realized that my analysis was not incorrect and the stock would circle back, I just stopped caring and accepted it as the new reality. Hence why I have been taking smaller positions and gravitating towards shares.
I have had to just ignore it and really put absolute trust in the projections I have run. Which .. is challenging. Because its my nature to be distrustful of everything. But yesterday and today are the first 2 days in like.... months, that I actually just walked away with open positions and said "fuck it. Ride or die. Its in the math's hands now." (please know, I never recommend this approach not matter how infallible your strategy is!).
Today I opted to enter a short position relatively close to open and go back to bed (seriously) because its just so stressful. Thankfully I woke up to great gains and not losses, lol. Which is really lucky, because I had set a TP at 4099 (SPX) and ....... it didn't get submitted! So when I woke up at 3:30 I was still in! This actually worked in my favour since we dropped lower but man, there was an instant of absolute panic (being half a sleep and seeing the "Open Positions: 2" (I was also short on IWM) on my laptop beside me. Yikes.
So the moral of this story is, if you are getting chopped in this market, know you are not alone. Even for me, as not a new trader but not really a senior trader by any stretch of the imagination, I am finding this challenging.
That said, tomorrow seems like it will be no different.
The probability on everything is pretty split down the middle.
On the Qs, SPX, SPY and IWM there is a notable preference for upside on the momentum side. The technical side, everything is fairly 50:50 with the exception of the Qs and IWM which have some bullish strength shining through. This actually makes sense when we look at the setup on the chart (the pennant thing). Thus, we can expect this to work its way back up, but be destined for majorly range bound/choppy PA. Because remember, we have CPI next week and the market is for sure probably anxious about that.
Tomorrow is not a day I would really leave a position unattended because the probabilities are not convincing one way or the other. I have to say though, the technical setup (bounce from support back to resistance) is very persuasive. But I like the probs to be very persuasive in one direction or the other before I would walk away (like they were today on SPX).
So if you are a day trader, scale back and probably keep that scalping mentality. You should get good movement in both directions.
If you are a swing trader, I don't think its unreasonable to be long here back for a re-test of the top of this pennant. But I would recommend being completely out before CPI. I wouldn't gamble play into CPI because its honestly not worth it.
But perhaps next week we will get some persuasive probabilities leading into next week. I am really hoping on this because if the probs are really mixed next week, I am going to be super disappointed and frustrated.
Safe trades everyone! Let me know your questions below!
EDIT: I forgot to mention, on the VIX oscillator there is bullish divergence and the VIX is way overbought. So we can expect the vix to at least turn back to neutrality (0) on the oscillator, but I suspect it will go down to -2.
Just my thoughts!
My P&L on the week is not great because I have had to really scale back on my position sizes. Unfortunately, this is a week where I have had to put complete faith in the probability targets. Every time I entered a position this week, with the exception of one scalp yesterday, EVERY. TIME. the stock IMMEDIATELY went against me parabolically and at first I was stopping out, but once I realized that my analysis was not incorrect and the stock would circle back, I just stopped caring and accepted it as the new reality. Hence why I have been taking smaller positions and gravitating towards shares.
I have had to just ignore it and really put absolute trust in the projections I have run. Which .. is challenging. Because its my nature to be distrustful of everything. But yesterday and today are the first 2 days in like.... months, that I actually just walked away with open positions and said "fuck it. Ride or die. Its in the math's hands now." (please know, I never recommend this approach not matter how infallible your strategy is!).
Today I opted to enter a short position relatively close to open and go back to bed (seriously) because its just so stressful. Thankfully I woke up to great gains and not losses, lol. Which is really lucky, because I had set a TP at 4099 (SPX) and ....... it didn't get submitted! So when I woke up at 3:30 I was still in! This actually worked in my favour since we dropped lower but man, there was an instant of absolute panic (being half a sleep and seeing the "Open Positions: 2" (I was also short on IWM) on my laptop beside me. Yikes.
So the moral of this story is, if you are getting chopped in this market, know you are not alone. Even for me, as not a new trader but not really a senior trader by any stretch of the imagination, I am finding this challenging.
That said, tomorrow seems like it will be no different.
The probability on everything is pretty split down the middle.
On the Qs, SPX, SPY and IWM there is a notable preference for upside on the momentum side. The technical side, everything is fairly 50:50 with the exception of the Qs and IWM which have some bullish strength shining through. This actually makes sense when we look at the setup on the chart (the pennant thing). Thus, we can expect this to work its way back up, but be destined for majorly range bound/choppy PA. Because remember, we have CPI next week and the market is for sure probably anxious about that.
Tomorrow is not a day I would really leave a position unattended because the probabilities are not convincing one way or the other. I have to say though, the technical setup (bounce from support back to resistance) is very persuasive. But I like the probs to be very persuasive in one direction or the other before I would walk away (like they were today on SPX).
So if you are a day trader, scale back and probably keep that scalping mentality. You should get good movement in both directions.
If you are a swing trader, I don't think its unreasonable to be long here back for a re-test of the top of this pennant. But I would recommend being completely out before CPI. I wouldn't gamble play into CPI because its honestly not worth it.
But perhaps next week we will get some persuasive probabilities leading into next week. I am really hoping on this because if the probs are really mixed next week, I am going to be super disappointed and frustrated.
Safe trades everyone! Let me know your questions below!
EDIT: I forgot to mention, on the VIX oscillator there is bullish divergence and the VIX is way overbought. So we can expect the vix to at least turn back to neutrality (0) on the oscillator, but I suspect it will go down to -2.
Just my thoughts!
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