Referring again to my comparison of 2007-2008 vs now for the S&P and you can see we're still lock-step w/ price action from 2007.
You know the market is not well when bad job reports leads to rallies. An interest rate cut isn't going to save us... and it's going to be a sell the news event even if they actually cut (which they won't). So basically if they're dovish and cut rates, we get a blow-off top... if they don't the market is disappointed and freaks out. Either way we're probably headed down after the Fed meeting.
Notice how in 2007 big money had no interest in buying the dead cat bounce when everybody was EXPECTING A RATE CUT (just like now) and basically proceeded to punish the greedy also-rans after the Fed cut rates on Oct 31 2007... ushering in the bear market of 2008. The moral of the story is, if you NEED a rate cut when the market's near its all time highs... it's time to sell.
And here we are today in the same scenario... Unless something materially changes like we get a trade deal there's nothing to suggest we won't keep following the path of 2007.
We've already hit resistance at 289 and might even keep rallying to the ATH until the June 18-19 fed meeting... but anybody with a longer than 2 week outlook on equities should absolutely take their profits that week.
Anybody reading my posts on SPY know I've been expecting a mini-melt-up going into the June opex... Now we have a basis (no matter how irrational) for why that will happen. Just don't plan on sticking around afterwards.
You know the market is not well when bad job reports leads to rallies. An interest rate cut isn't going to save us... and it's going to be a sell the news event even if they actually cut (which they won't). So basically if they're dovish and cut rates, we get a blow-off top... if they don't the market is disappointed and freaks out. Either way we're probably headed down after the Fed meeting.
Notice how in 2007 big money had no interest in buying the dead cat bounce when everybody was EXPECTING A RATE CUT (just like now) and basically proceeded to punish the greedy also-rans after the Fed cut rates on Oct 31 2007... ushering in the bear market of 2008. The moral of the story is, if you NEED a rate cut when the market's near its all time highs... it's time to sell.
And here we are today in the same scenario... Unless something materially changes like we get a trade deal there's nothing to suggest we won't keep following the path of 2007.
We've already hit resistance at 289 and might even keep rallying to the ATH until the June 18-19 fed meeting... but anybody with a longer than 2 week outlook on equities should absolutely take their profits that week.
Anybody reading my posts on SPY know I've been expecting a mini-melt-up going into the June opex... Now we have a basis (no matter how irrational) for why that will happen. Just don't plan on sticking around afterwards.
