We hit the 50 daily moving average on $SPX500 today which caused a reactionary bounce. I was watching all three major indices today to make sure that there was confluence to this bounce - and it was there. Tomorrow (Friday, March 26, 2021) is the last trading day of the Month of March and the quarter-closing trading day. This means there is a good chance for more volatility which will push the prices upwards and downwards alike. This will be caused by the funds rebalancing and re-allocating assets to accommodate for various market risks we've seen in the past few weeks - including, but not limited to the spike in bond yields, post-COVID-19 effects to businesses as more vaccines become available and more people get vaccinated, the Fed's policy on standing pat with interest rates through 2023, and other macro-economic factors.
I'm currently looking for a retest to a sideways chop between $SPY 385 to $SPY 395 before the continuation dowards.
My IWM put scalps paid 500% today. I'm still leaving a few to see if we have a little more downward pressure.
The biggest caveat is that March is seasonally bearish while April is seasonally bullish. We shall see if we'll follow through with this cycle or if it will be an outlier type of year. I'm changing my stance to Neutral with a slight bearish tilt.
I'm currently looking for a retest to a sideways chop between $SPY 385 to $SPY 395 before the continuation dowards.
My IWM put scalps paid 500% today. I'm still leaving a few to see if we have a little more downward pressure.
The biggest caveat is that March is seasonally bearish while April is seasonally bullish. We shall see if we'll follow through with this cycle or if it will be an outlier type of year. I'm changing my stance to Neutral with a slight bearish tilt.
