CurtisM

$SPX $SPY $ESZ3 60min chart.

BATS:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
278 1 0
Well, I was totally off the mark for Friday so be warned that I could be totally off the mark for Monday.

However, $SPX             , $SPY, $ESZ3 are still stuck in a sideways channel but are very close to breaking out of this channel. This breakout really should happen Monday and maybe even happen near the open and head to the moon as we start the next up leg of this rally. Note on the chart that the Fisher Transform gave an end of cycle signal at the open on Friday and still has lots of headroom left before it will give another such signal. This may be all that's needed to get $SPX             out of this range.

$TRIN closed at .49 on Friday and while this shows an overbought situation readings this low have come in at recent short term bottoms. Usually readings in the 0.50 area for the $TRIN have come after a couple of weeks of selling not after just one day but, until proven otherwise, then I'm going with Friday's rally as a legitimate rejection of lower prices.

ADX for $SPX             daily chart has rolled over. I mentioned this a while back and said that it's better when the ADX gets to 35 and then rolls over as it gives a better signal. ADX is a powerful end of trend indicator but since it only rose to about 28 before rolling over I don't see this as a legitimate end of trend signal. But what if ADX is right? It has clearly rolled over on $TRAN and the QQQ's. In order for ADX to reverse, $SPX             will have to tick up Monday & Tuesday and if this does not happen then this increases the probability that ADX is right and that $SPX             will break down and through the bottom of the current trading range.

Two more things:

RSI on weekly $SPX             chart is now at 70 indicating an overbought situation. Once the RSI on the weekly chart hits 70 you just have to be watching for some kind of give back. As long as the market doesn't fall off a cliff             this coming week, then I think that the days following the week ending November 22nd will be the ones to watch, just in time for Thanksgiving. Regardless, with the RSI at 70 on the weekly charts this is no time for complacency.

On my blog under 'Breadth Indicators,' I have $VIX chart with a 5EMA. If we see more upside this week and the week after, then that chart will become more and more important. If you click on the link, then you can bookmark that link.

GL in the week ahead.
UP OR DOWN is 50:50 chance.
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