With treasuries looking to break down on the daily, and SPY looking like it wants another shot at the high I have to continue to lean for the next few weeks. I admit, it's hard to ignore that the overall trend on TLT remains higher, as it was throughout all of 2014, but 2015 hasn't been great for TLT so far. It seems to be saying to me that many who were seeking to protect their gains last year are now feeling like they are missing something and rotating back out. That's probably not a good thing long term, as such sentiment is usually when a top occurs. Looking more short term, I'm concerned by the on the hourly renko (right graph) confirming the swing lower. I think the bears might finally have their day in the sun, if any are still standing. This still unlikely to be THE top that many are calling for IMO.
In particular, you should spend no time at all thinking about those rosy scenarios in which the market goes your way, since in those situations, there's nothing more for you to do. - William Eckhardt