AMEX:SPY   SPDR S&P 500 ETF
78 3 1
Over the next week or so we should have clarity on how S&P             will sub-divide within this presumed 3rd wave of (5). The immediately bullish white count supposes price is already in a minute (circle) i-ii, (i)-(ii) and perhaps even subminutte i-ii. The tell will be holding high support and taking out resistance in an impulsive fashion. In the green count, which has slightly higher targets is operative, minute wave i tagging the 0.618 earlier this month. IF this count is operative then wave ii correction can go deeper with support at 211 region, perhaps as low as 206. (I use the fib retracement tool on smaller time frames, looking for the 38.2 to 61.8, but not visible here.)

Negative divergence on the hourly time frames, along with high support breaking late this week, suggests that the green alternative is certainly possible. With a break below the prior ATH             near wave (3) - not shown, see instead yellow line - I'll likely take the white alternative off the chart.

I've calculated the fib extension of minor waves 1-2 and drawn them manually since the tradingview.com tool doesn't work on log scale, only calculating arithmetic extensions instead of percentage.

Targets for the white count are nearer the bottoms of the boxes while the green count nearer the top.

Related Ideas

KenzoMorsa
2 months ago
Great analysis! do you think price will drop further to green (ii)? Thanks
Reply
Yes, very possible. Might get a sizable bounce first.
Reply
tradingviewfox
a month ago
Thanks a lot. Is there any update? I am just wondering if we have a chance to hit 205.X.
Reply
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