SPY: Last week of April

Seems like its going to be a short.
HA setup for a move to 500 inclusive of extended hours, with an equal bearish setup to 501 with extended hours toggled off.

Interestingly enough 500 is also PL2 on the prospective levels (in the chart above).

Sentiment for Monday is neutral to bearish. I have included some old tricks and models since this past week relying on one alone really gave me a run for my money haha.

Pinescript similar day analysis: Neutral (equal bullish and bearish days);
R Similar day analysis: Bearish
R Logistic Regression model: Bearish
R Z-Score Model: Bearish

So let's hope that its going to be bearish on Monday haha.

For the Week, half the models were unsure, the other half were questionable based on the cases. So let's leave it as neutral.

It doesn't matter too too much because there is a really nice HA setup which gives a TP of PL2 on the week. We also have a bearish reference target at around 507. Remember with those, we open above, we will generally circle back down and if we open below we will generally circle back up.

Let's hope SPY gives it up.
If we do snag these low targets, the question becomes, when do we reverse back up. The answer likely being at the low targets. Market is bullishly bearish with constant over-exaggerated bounces everywhere. You really can't do wrong longing unless you over-stay.

Those are my thoughts. Adopt a bullish bias if we end up snagging the reference target and holding it as support (because its right on the bearish condition). If that happens and we head back up, its looking like a bullish thesis is more correct.

Let's see what we get!

Comment:

SPY invalidated the 500 TP setup, ofc. *eye roll*,
but seems to be holding true to the intra-day bearishness.

Not sure where it goes in the larger term, will need to see how the day ends. Just wanted to give the heads up that the setup has been invalidated.

Comment:

As of right now, SPY has carved out a setup that will bring us just over 510.70.
So likely heading for PH1 on the week at some point.

Comment:

SPY now printed a bullish pattern, likely will gap towards that target into the am though, as its only 510.
Expectation is a move to 514 this week:

We'll see what happens when/if we get there.

Safe trades!

Comment:

One little warning,
Prepare for pre-fomc shenanigans tomorrow.
Probs are bearish on SPY so expect more of the same PA as today with fakeouts in all directions.

Comment:

No comment....
Original analysis was correct and 500 was the TP, damn SPY throwing curve balls haha.

Everything is showing bearish continuation tomorrow.
Messes, messes, messes.

Best of luck!

Comment:

Likely heading back up tomorrow.
500 held fine and probs on SPX, SPY and NVDA for tomorrow are bullish.
So, fairly optimistic that this is bottomed at least temporarily.

Comment:

So we did indeed head back up after a quick retrace in the am.
But as with the FOMC pump and dump its really not liking this threshold range.

Be cautious tomorrow. It does seem rather bearish. Readings are neutral for the most part, momentum is positive from the rally mid day into end of day, but momentum removed probaiblity is actually on the bearish side. It means mixed results, momentum bullish and general position of spy bearish.

No clear continuation pattern in any direction where we closed so its important to watch how behaves premarket tomorrow if you are planning to trade it.
Watch those threshold values because that is where its rejecting repedidly.

Comment:

Not going to post publicly for this upcoming week, going to keep thoughts to myself for now.
But probability was bullish last week and we ended up circling right around back to the high targets.
Keep that in mind because its bullish again next week as well.

Best of luck to all and safe trades!