Weekly SPY (ES-US500-SPX) Outlook - Prediction
📊 Market Sentiment
Market sentiment is driven by fear at the moment. In my opinion, we are trading inside a bearish zone. Unless we get meaningful data or positive news, I expect the market to continue declining. Core PPI will be released on Tuesday at 08:30, which could create a small bullish reaction; however, I personally do not think this will shift overall sentiment. PPI is not a strong catalyst for a major sentiment change, so bearish conditions are likely to remain in play.
📈 Technical Analysis
Price ran 675.5, trapped the bulls, and then reversed sharply to the downside exactly as I anticipated in my previous weekly outlook. Price tapped 653 and bounced from that level, which aligned with Friday’s projection.
📌 Outlook – Prediction
Scenario 1 (Bearish Scenario):
I think this scenario is more likely early in the week. Price may retrace toward 633, which is a significant institutional liquidity pool for me. From there, price could gather energy for a higher expansion or bounce.
Scenario 2 (Bullish Scenario):
If price aggressively reprices back to 675, I will consider the bias short-term bullish. In that case, I will be buying after a retracement to 667.
Follow me for daily SPY–QQQ updates. I will update the idea based on evolving price action.
💬 For detailed insights and broader market context, please check my Substack link in profile.
⚠️ For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.
📊 Market Sentiment
Market sentiment is driven by fear at the moment. In my opinion, we are trading inside a bearish zone. Unless we get meaningful data or positive news, I expect the market to continue declining. Core PPI will be released on Tuesday at 08:30, which could create a small bullish reaction; however, I personally do not think this will shift overall sentiment. PPI is not a strong catalyst for a major sentiment change, so bearish conditions are likely to remain in play.
📈 Technical Analysis
Price ran 675.5, trapped the bulls, and then reversed sharply to the downside exactly as I anticipated in my previous weekly outlook. Price tapped 653 and bounced from that level, which aligned with Friday’s projection.
📌 Outlook – Prediction
Scenario 1 (Bearish Scenario):
I think this scenario is more likely early in the week. Price may retrace toward 633, which is a significant institutional liquidity pool for me. From there, price could gather energy for a higher expansion or bounce.
Scenario 2 (Bullish Scenario):
If price aggressively reprices back to 675, I will consider the bias short-term bullish. In that case, I will be buying after a retracement to 667.
Follow me for daily SPY–QQQ updates. I will update the idea based on evolving price action.
💬 For detailed insights and broader market context, please check my Substack link in profile.
⚠️ For educational purposes only. This is not financial advice.
Trade active
Bullish scenario is playing out perfectly.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.