Spy has run its course for this week.. I'll be looking for a pullback to retest breakout in the next 2 sessions.
RSI is at resistance

I won't go into the overbought conditions because at this point it's redundant. Can we tag 420-422? All depends on FOMC next week but for now it's a short here.

If you're bullish your betting on a continuous Squeeze for some big tech names. I'm a technical man, I don't trade squeezes!

Vix has bottomed.. CCI on 1 and 2 hour is telling me a pop is coming in the next 2 sessions

The only reason I'm leaving the Back door open for 422 next week is because of IXIC which is the nasdaq composite. Even though QQQ and NDX has closed their gaps IXC which lagged the Nasdaq hasn't . IXIC as you can see broke out of an ascending triangle, and there's gaps all the way to 13090 which is another 2% move on nasdaq. For more info, see link.

I told you yesterday at the close don't jump in front of this train to short, now I'm telling you to find an exit ..
This is it...

In spy

421 stop loss
The last time I saw a tech rally like this was back in Sept 2020 right before apple and tsla split..
Dow jones closed its gap at 33,560
Iwm closed its gap at 177...

All moves completed...
Pullback to breakout should start tomorrow...

If spy pushes higher and doesn't drop back below 418 at the open then they will push this to 422 tomorrow...

We have 2 events , Powell speaking and Debt ceiling Sunday , If they push this up again tomorrow I will close my shorts and wait for Eod entry again
Nq daily RSI
Should start seeing tech turn red early tomorrow

Double bottom move completed

Looking for a retest of wedge breakout
Around 13,744

Es Nearing megaphone top here.
Could pop to 4232 and head back down. Nearest support 4175
Games.... Nasdaq playing the back while Dow grabs the steering wheel..
Literally 5 more points until the ES hits resistance... ES has a gap to close at 4228
Holding my shorts . Adding Googl puts at the open
Maybe some BS at the opener but I'm telling you , 1,2,3 and 4hour CCI is telling me the VIX is about to pop in a major way ..
All it needs is a Catalyst
XLC topped out
XLK , just topped out

Smh chip sector . Things get nasty if it closes back below 133.
Not a rising wedge like the other 2 sectors . Just at .236 fib (Tough resistance)
Health sector and energy are both up.. Probably a rotation back into defense today..

Tech will need to bleed badly to offset gains by health and bring spy down..
Qqq puts may pay better than Spy puts
The number to break back below on spy is 418.... any short above that is timing the top.. the safest entry is below 418...
Powell speaks in the next hour..
This is Spy chart again ..

I adjusted the resistance to match ES chart.. if this holds the top is in
Dow jones transportation and Smallcaps breaking down
Vix 1hour..
Falling wedge breakout.. target 18.00
Today is the top, don't pay much attention to the sell, you just want a close below 418.50 on the Spy...
Sunday, if talks stall or sour on debt ceiling Monday is when the big sell begins. Tech is overbought but debt ceiling talks will impact IWM the most (Cylicals, energy, Financials)
Bottom may be around 417 for spy today or trendline support..
1hour chart..

If you don't wanna swing that would be your exit
Up 30% on Googl.. .. covering Half here letting the other half ride..

Swinging spy puts
Yesterday at the close
Dow and SPY both finished inside
A pennant which was the reason for the tight choppy trading.

The entry is from the top so that would imply this is a bear pennant, which should take us to 414 but if it breaks out to the up side that would be a double bottom and we would see Fridays high

Looking at NQ.. tech should pullback today from the open

Dow jones futures (Ym)

Bullish scenario.. regain channel and push back up to resistance

Bearish scenario head and shoulders playing out here

Might see a soft repeat of early Friday where banks and energy outperform earlier on until news about debt ceiling comes in then cylicals slide... I'm a technical trader, I'll trade momentum or news but I don't like depending on it... Technicals are pver bought and we should see a minimum 1% pullback across the board
Stopped out of googl..
Still in spy
Double bottom in pennant almost completed
They bought dip on chips..

This rate pause talk is squeezing tech...
Waiting for Google to tag 127.50 to reshort..
.throw your fib on ATH and 2020 low and you'll see what I mean
In short
128.00 stop loss
417.50. As you can see they are holding it up for dear life..

Below that next support is 415.50..
Googl is outside its weekly Bollinger band... I'll take a break from trading if it finishes the week like this.

122 then 117
Vix suppression at 18.00..
Technically the Vix has shot it like load.
Will need some news to breakout ..

The 2hour Money flow on SPY is overbought..

Qqq overbought on every time frame ..

Expecting a hard flush by EOD or early tomorrow
Down 30% on Spy puts.. at this point I'm swinging 1 more night.. still amazed they kept this up rotating pumping tsla,meta, googl,msft. All those stocks mentioned are now overbought ..

Up a 12% on googl..

417.50 is the level to break..
Still in megaphone

1hour chart.

On support here ... tight range
Qqq 1hour chart and rsi... the divergence is insane

Last 2 times the 2hour cci and MFI were this overbought on spy were

April 4th
May 1st..
Looks like a double top on ES and NQ forming...

What ever happens, the CCI on the vix 1,2,3,4 hour is telling me expect a dump on the vix tomorrow. I'll be looking to close my shorts on Googl and Spy today

417.50 - resistance

415.50 - support

Below that 414.60

I don't think It breaks 415 today but lets see what happens
Still down 17% on My spy puts ..
Put a stop loss at 25% and I'm letting it ride till EOD...

Still holding full size googl.. .closing EOD also...

The problem I have is that the Vix is at an inflection point , and the technicals tell me that the vix has 80% pullback chance tomorrow. Debt ceiling and Fomc minutes still linger.. I don't like relying on news, I might as well play earnings!.

Vix 2hour chart..
Trapped between resistance and support ... 20.00 or 15.00 is the next move

Iwm is showing a major double bottom breakout if it closes over 180

Also look at ym1 (Dow jones futures).
Look at the 3hour moneyflow.. it's way over sold, the dow might pop 400pts any day now...

To sum it up, besides tech things look ready to pop.. Only thing that makes me hesitant is the debt ceiling
Moved stops up..
Covered ..I'm out
Double top completed on ES

NQ approaching support trendline

Don't want to swing any position but I'll be looking for a long tomorrow
You see the 1hour RSI and CCI on the ES?
It's dangerous being short down here
Technically I got the pullback I was looking for on Spy.

Added this trendline here, possible bounce.

Not looking for another short unless this breaks 21ema at around 413..
Qqq 1hour chart

Risky trade here...
Gotta scratch this itch though
Small position


Falling wedge
Possible move to 175 gap close..
For those of you who want to see how I use the CCI on the vix.. here's an example,

4 hour chart on vix with a red arrow eveytime Vix CCI went overbought

Now here's the cci on the same time frames with the same arrow positioning... you can see what happened..

4/4 everytime it reaches blue line.....
The bigger the timeframe the bigger the pullback. Only thing that would stop the vix pullback is more negative news on debt ceiling.

If that happens then this scenario would be next up .
Spy 410

✌ catch you all later
Support - 412
Below that and we head to 410

21ema - 413.00

I wouldn't short at the open look for a possible retrace and gap close. Long over 21ema for gap close.. 412.00 stop loss.

Vix has a gap to close at 20.06.
They will close it today
Although some tech names are down , tech is actually spy back bone right now.. Cylicals and smallcaps are dragging..
Fully back tested here.. msft,aapl are green with Amzn..
If this doesn't hold 406 gap close next
Still looking for the bounce
Ugly.. can't put any really capital to work here.. I'm on the sidelines until minutes..

Inhindsight when I woke up and saw euro markets down 2% I should've know we drop at least 1¼%
Man you really have to listen to these senators speak, a quoted tweet doesn't do it justice.

They aren't even close to a deal!.

Es sitting on support... same as spy

Everything is still oversold.
Let's see if minutes provide a intra day bounce or breaks support
No Fomc relief..
Vix outside daily Bollinger band now..

Looking ahead, Nvda has earnings in the Aftermarket.

May swing some lotto tsla calls, bounced off 50sma

Xly sector bounce off trendline support and 148 fib support..

Waiting till EOD... even though vix is overbought technically vix needs to get back below 18 for the market to turn back bullish.... and this is why any calls swung are lottos.

I posted on Twitter about the last time this debt ceiling show down happened in 2011..
Spy drop 20% in 20days.. the technicals stayed oversold the entire way!
Qqq.. Daily chart..
Was the breakout a fake out? Sitting on previous resistance..

XLK respected that wedge top I mentioned. This is why aapl and msft aren't down as much

Now sitting on Prior baby wedge resistance

XLC.. also respected the wedge resistance

Now sitting on fib support

So with that being said from a technical perspective this was the pullback needed.
Being midway through these wedges I can't say that the dump isn't over for tech.
Spy 15min chart.
Broke out
21ema road block at 413.00
Hard right back in no man's land
That we traded in for most of march.

410.00 support
Below that 50sma at 408

413 resistance
Above that 415

I'm in cash, I'll wait for the rebound
Anything that has anything to do with A.I. is up on NVDA earnings..

Every time Nadaq gets back into support it gets a bail out on big tech earnings.. Same happened when MSFT and Aapl had earnings.

The marathon continues 😆 😭
Vix is under 20 which is good but we need a drop under 18.00 .

415.50 resistance
Over 415.50 and we see 417.50

21ema is support
Like I said, as long as vix is over 18 expect fawkery.

One thing I did notice is XLK smack into that resistance again.. this will make it harder for aapl and Msft to head higher..
Dow jones ... getting these fib levels I used all time high + 2020 low.

33,520 last stand here.
.236 bulls will need to hold the line there or we'll drop below 32k.

I'll be watching IWM at 172 also
The gains in tech so far are off setting losses. Shifty day to trade Etfs , better off trading individual stocks
Keep a tight stop on calls.. Vix flagging against trendline
Spy 5min chart..
One could argue its a cup and handle playing out.

We'll know in the next 1hour.

I'll be back on last hour
Dow jones 15min falling wedge breakout
Alright guys possible setups here.

Spy 1hour chart.
Bearish inverted cup and handle

Vix 1hour chart
Bullish cup and handle

This doesn't have to playout, but we do have some wild cards out there with Core PCE and Michigan consumer sentiment
Tomorrow. Careful swinging long or hedge .

Like I said until vix is under 18, expect fawkery.

I'll do a new post later


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